PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Athletic Club 1–0 Fortaleza · Serie B

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Athletic Club won 1–0.

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: fortaleza EC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Fortaleza EC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fortaleza EC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.27 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.27 goals/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Athletic Club favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Fortaleza in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Athletic Club11 matchesFortaleza11 matches
1.18 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲ 1.27 goals/match
1 goal/matchGoals allowed11/111 goal/match
0.94 xG/matchExpected goals7/50.95 xG/match
7.43 shots/matchShots7/5▲ 13.8 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target7/5▲ 3.8 shots/match
39.7%Possession7/5● 45.4%
3.43 corners/matchCorners7/5● 4.6 corners/match
16.1 fouls/matchFouls7/517 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 May 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAthletic ClubFortaleza
CompetitionSerie B
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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