PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Botafogo-SP 1–2 Athletic Club · Serie B

1–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Athletic Club won 1–2.

Shots
128
Shots on target
62
Expected goals
1.371
Possession
62%38%

Full time

What the match recorded

Athletic Club beat Botafogo-SP 2–1. Recorded in this match (Botafogo-SP – Athletic Club): shots 12–8, shots on target 6–2, expected goals 1.37–1, possession 62%–38%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Botafogo-SP's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Botafogo-SP's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.1 goals/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots8 shotsBotafogo-SP 12 shots, Athletic Club 8 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots2 shotsBotafogo-SP 6 shots, Athletic Club 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.37 xG1 xGBotafogo-SP 1.37 xG, Athletic Club 1 xG
  • Possession62%38%Botafogo-SP 62%, Athletic Club 38%
  • Corners6 corners2 cornersBotafogo-SP 6 corners, Athletic Club 2 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls14 foulsBotafogo-SP 14 fouls, Athletic Club 14 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Botafogo-SP
0Draws
2Athletic Club
Athletic Club — Botafogo-SP · Serie B2–0
Botafogo-SP — Athletic Club · Serie B0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Botafogo-SP favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Athletic Club in 2 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Botafogo-SP10 matchesAthletic Club10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲ 1.2 goals/match
1.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.1 goals/match
1.06 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/70.94 xG/match
11 shots/match ▲Shots5/77.43 shots/match
3.6 shots/match ▲Shots on target5/73 shots/match
48.2% ●Possession5/739.7%
5.4 corners/match ●Corners5/73.43 corners/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/716.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 26 May 2026, 02:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBotafogo-SPAthletic Club
CompetitionSerie B
Head-to-headBotafogo-SP — Athletic Club
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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