PitchMath
Serie B · 2026Estádio Primeiro de Maio

São Bernardo 1–0 Goiás · Serie B

1–0Full-time analysis

Goiás

WDWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

São Bernardo won 1–0.

Expected goals
0.010.04

Full time

What the match recorded

São Bernardo beat Goias 1–0. Recorded in this match (São Bernardo – Goias): expected goals 0.01–0.04. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Goias's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Goias's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1 goal/match1 goal/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Expected goals0.01 xG0.04 xGSão Bernardo 0.01 xG, Goiás 0.04 xG

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: São Bernardo favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Goiás in 4

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

São Bernardo6 matchesGoiás6 matches
1.33 goals/match ▲Goals scored6/61 goal/match
0.83 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/61.33 goals/match
0.8 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲ 0.96 xG/match
11.4 shots/match ▲Shots5/59.8 shots/match
4.2 shots/match ▲Shots on target5/52 shots/match
46.8%Possession5/5● 54.2%
4.4 corners/match ●Corners5/54 corners/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls5/513.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Apr 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSão BernardoGoiás
CompetitionSerie B
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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