PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Alianza Valledupar FC 0–1 Independiente Medellín · Primera A

0–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Independiente Medellín won 0–1.

Shots
189
Shots on target
13
Expected goals
1.230.5
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

Independiente Medellin beat Alianza Valledupar 1–0. Recorded in this match (Alianza Valledupar – Independiente Medellin): shots 18–9, shots on target 1–3, expected goals 1.23–0.5, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Alianza Valledupar's recent record differs from the season

weak

Alianza Valledupar's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.65 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match0.65 goals/match1.26 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Independiente Medellin have a visible away split

moderate

Independiente Medellin's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.4 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.4 shots/match14.6 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots9 shotsAlianza Valledupar FC 18 shots, Independiente Medellín 9 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot3 shotsAlianza Valledupar FC 1 shot, Independiente Medellín 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.23 xG0.5 xGAlianza Valledupar FC 1.23 xG, Independiente Medellín 0.5 xG
  • Possession59%41%Alianza Valledupar FC 59%, Independiente Medellín 41%
  • Corners6 corners4 cornersAlianza Valledupar FC 6 corners, Independiente Medellín 4 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls11 foulsAlianza Valledupar FC 13 fouls, Independiente Medellín 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards4 cardsAlianza Valledupar FC 4 cards, Independiente Medellín 4 cards
  • Passes402 passes298 passesAlianza Valledupar FC 402 passes, Independiente Medellín 298 passes
  • Pass accuracy86%80%Alianza Valledupar FC 86%, Independiente Medellín 80%
  • Shots inside box9 shots2 shotsAlianza Valledupar FC 9 shots, Independiente Medellín 2 shots
  • Blocked shots5 blocks3 blocksAlianza Valledupar FC 5 blocks, Independiente Medellín 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves1 saveAlianza Valledupar FC 2 saves, Independiente Medellín 1 save
  • Offsides3 offsides0 offsidesAlianza Valledupar FC 3 offsides, Independiente Medellín 0 offsides

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Alianza Valledupar FC favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Independiente Medellín in 9 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Alianza Valledupar FC17 matchesIndependiente Medellín16 matches
0.65 goals/matchGoals scored17/16▲ 1.38 goals/match
1.47 goals/matchGoals allowed17/16▲ 1.38 goals/match
0.8 xG/matchExpected goals14/12▲ 1.12 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots17/16▲ 14.6 shots/match
2.76 shots/matchShots on target17/16▲ 4.81 shots/match
45.8%Possession17/16● 51.2%
4.59 corners/matchCorners17/16● 5.44 corners/match
4.6 cards/matchCards5/74.14 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls17/1610.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples17 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 20 Apr 2026, 01:10 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAlianza Valledupar FCIndependiente Medellín
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required