PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Independiente Medellín 2–3 Atlético Nacional · Primera A

2–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Atlético Nacional won 2–3.

Shots
1016
Shots on target
76
Expected goals
0.421.73
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atletico Nacional beat Independiente Medellin 3–2. Recorded in this match (Independiente Medellin – Atletico Nacional): shots 10–16, shots on target 7–6, expected goals 0.42–1.73, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Independiente Medellin have a visible home split

moderate

Independiente Medellin's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.6 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots18.6 shots/match14.9 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Atletico Nacional.

8.99 days ▲Rest daysIndependiente Medellin · Atletico Nacional5.01 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricIndependiente MedellinAtletico NacionalBaseline
Rest days8.99 days5.01 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots16 shotsIndependiente Medellín 10 shots, Atlético Nacional 16 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots6 shotsIndependiente Medellín 7 shots, Atlético Nacional 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.42 xG1.73 xGIndependiente Medellín 0.42 xG, Atlético Nacional 1.73 xG
  • Possession41%59%Independiente Medellín 41%, Atlético Nacional 59%
  • Corners3 corners4 cornersIndependiente Medellín 3 corners, Atlético Nacional 4 corners
  • Fouls4 fouls8 foulsIndependiente Medellín 4 fouls, Atlético Nacional 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsIndependiente Medellín 1 card, Atlético Nacional 2 cards
  • Passes286 passes427 passesIndependiente Medellín 286 passes, Atlético Nacional 427 passes
  • Pass accuracy87%89%Independiente Medellín 87%, Atlético Nacional 89%
  • Shots inside box3 shots10 shotsIndependiente Medellín 3 shots, Atlético Nacional 10 shots
  • Blocked shots0 blocks5 blocksIndependiente Medellín 0 blocks, Atlético Nacional 5 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves6 saves5 savesIndependiente Medellín 6 saves, Atlético Nacional 5 saves
  • Offsides1 offside2 offsidesIndependiente Medellín 1 offside, Atlético Nacional 2 offsides

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Independiente Medellín favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Nacional in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Independiente Medellín15 matchesAtlético Nacional16 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored15/16▲ 2.06 goals/match
1.47 goals/matchGoals allowed15/16▲ 0.81 goals/match
1.17 xG/matchExpected goals11/16▲ 1.65 xG/match
14.9 shots/matchShots15/16▲ 16.3 shots/match
4.93 shots/matchShots on target15/16▲ 6.19 shots/match
51.9%Possession15/16● 56.3%
5.53 corners/match ●Corners15/164.63 corners/match
4 cards/matchCards6/54.2 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls15/1611.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples15 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 12 Apr 2026, 05:20 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsIndependiente MedellínAtlético Nacional
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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