PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin

Millonarios 1–1 Independiente Santa Fe · Primera A

1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Millonarios and Independiente Santa Fe drew 1–1.

Shots
1811
Shots on target
64
Expected goals
1.481.04
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

Millonarios and Santa Fe drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Millonarios – Santa Fe): shots 18–11, shots on target 6–4, expected goals 1.48–1.04, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Millonarios's recent record differs from the season

weak

Millonarios's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.63 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.88 corners/match ●CornersMillonarios · Santa Fe5.63 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricMillonariosSanta FeBaseline
Corners5.88 corners/match5.63 corners/match4.66 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots11 shotsMillonarios 18 shots, Independiente Santa Fe 11 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots4 shotsMillonarios 6 shots, Independiente Santa Fe 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.48 xG1.04 xGMillonarios 1.48 xG, Independiente Santa Fe 1.04 xG
  • Possession53%47%Millonarios 53%, Independiente Santa Fe 47%
  • Corners10 corners2 cornersMillonarios 10 corners, Independiente Santa Fe 2 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls9 foulsMillonarios 12 fouls, Independiente Santa Fe 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards5 cards1 cardMillonarios 5 cards, Independiente Santa Fe 1 card
  • Passes292 passes267 passesMillonarios 292 passes, Independiente Santa Fe 267 passes
  • Pass accuracy79%75%Millonarios 79%, Independiente Santa Fe 75%
  • Shots inside box12 shots6 shotsMillonarios 12 shots, Independiente Santa Fe 6 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks3 blocksMillonarios 4 blocks, Independiente Santa Fe 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves5 savesMillonarios 3 saves, Independiente Santa Fe 5 saves
  • Offsides1 offside2 offsidesMillonarios 1 offside, Independiente Santa Fe 2 offsides

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Millonarios favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Independiente Santa Fe in 1 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Millonarios16 matchesIndependiente Santa Fe16 matches
1.63 goals/match ▲Goals scored16/161.19 goals/match
1.13 goals/match ▲Goals allowed16/161.25 goals/match
1.31 xG/match ▲Expected goals12/141.06 xG/match
15.8 shots/match ▲Shots16/1613 shots/match
5.13 shots/matchShots on target16/164.88 shots/match
47.3%Possession16/16● 49.2%
5.88 corners/match ●Corners16/165.63 corners/match
4.5 cards/matchCards6/83.63 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 12 Apr 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMillonariosIndependiente Santa Fe
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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