Deportes Tolima
Primera A · 2026Deportes Tolima 3–1 Jaguares de Córdoba · Primera A
This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.
Match at a glance
Deportes Tolima won 3–1.
- Shots
- 25–17
- Shots on target
- 9–6
- Expected goals
- 2.37–1.31
- Possession
- 62%–38%
Full time
What the match recorded
Deportes Tolima beat Jaguares 3–1. Recorded in this match (Deportes Tolima – Jaguares): shots 25–17, shots on target 9–6, expected goals 2.37–1.31, possession 62%–38%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.
Pre-match record
What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.
Jaguares's recent record differs from the season
moderateJaguares's last-five shots average is above their season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.
Window: last_5 versus season
| Metric | Last 5 | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 14.4 shots/match | 10.5 shots/match | 12.6 shots/match |
Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.
Deportes Tolima have a visible home split
moderateDeportes Tolima's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.
Window: home
| Metric | Home only | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 16.2 shots/match | 12.9 shots/match | 12.6 shots/match |
Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.
Recent scheduling adds useful context
weakA compressed recent schedule is recorded for Deportes Tolima, Jaguares.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.
Window: previous 14 days
| Metric | Deportes Tolima | Jaguares | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest days | 5.17 days | 4.99 days | — |
| Matches last 14 days | 3 matches | 3 matches | — |
Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.
This match
Match statistics
Metric comparison
Team comparison
Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.
Season: Deportes Tolima favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Jaguares de Córdoba in 0 · 2 too close
Window
Season
Window
Last 10
Window
Last 5
Window
Home–Away
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
- Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 3 matches
Deportes Tolima / Jaguares de Córdoba
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
- Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
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