PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Palogrande

Once Caldas 1–4 Millonarios · Primera A

1–4Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Millonarios won 1–4.

Shots
1818
Shots on target
37
Expected goals
0.720.97
Possession
68%32%

Full time

What the match recorded

Millonarios beat Once Caldas 4–1. Recorded in this match (Once Caldas – Millonarios): shots 18–18, shots on target 3–7, expected goals 0.72–0.97, possession 68%–32%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Millonarios's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Millonarios's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.77 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3 goals/match1.77 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Once Caldas, Millonarios.

2.95 days ▲Rest daysOnce Caldas · Millonarios3.91 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricOnce CaldasMillonariosBaseline
Rest days2.95 days3.91 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Millonarios show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Millonarios's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.1 shots/match ▲ShotsOnce Caldas · Millonarios15.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricOnce CaldasMillonariosBaseline
Shots14.1 shots/match15.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against14 shots/match11.1 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots18 shotsOnce Caldas 18 shots, Millonarios 18 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots7 shotsOnce Caldas 3 shots, Millonarios 7 shots
  • Expected goals0.72 xG0.97 xGOnce Caldas 0.72 xG, Millonarios 0.97 xG
  • Possession68%32%Once Caldas 68%, Millonarios 32%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersOnce Caldas 4 corners, Millonarios 4 corners
  • Fouls2 fouls9 foulsOnce Caldas 2 fouls, Millonarios 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards3 cardsOnce Caldas 2 cards, Millonarios 3 cards
  • Passes588 passes256 passesOnce Caldas 588 passes, Millonarios 256 passes
  • Pass accuracy89%76%Once Caldas 89%, Millonarios 76%
  • Shots inside box4 shots9 shotsOnce Caldas 4 shots, Millonarios 9 shots
  • Blocked shots10 blocks4 blocksOnce Caldas 10 blocks, Millonarios 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves2 savesOnce Caldas 3 saves, Millonarios 2 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides1 offsideOnce Caldas 2 offsides, Millonarios 1 offside

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Once Caldas favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Millonarios in 9 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Once Caldas13 matchesMillonarios13 matches
1.85 goals/matchGoals scored13/131.77 goals/match
1.31 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲ 1.08 goals/match
1.06 xG/matchExpected goals11/9▲ 1.34 xG/match
14.1 shots/matchShots13/13▲ 15.8 shots/match
5.69 shots/match ▲Shots on target13/135 shots/match
53.7% ●Possession13/1345.5%
5.54 corners/match ●Corners13/135.08 corners/match
3.2 cards/matchCards5/44.25 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 03:20 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsOnce CaldasMillonarios
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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