PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Américo Montanini

Atlético Bucaramanga 1–1 Once Caldas · Primera A

1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Atlético Bucaramanga and Once Caldas drew 1–1.

Shots
1211
Shots on target
32
Expected goals
0.560.97
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bucaramanga and Once Caldas drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Bucaramanga – Once Caldas): shots 12–11, shots on target 3–2, expected goals 0.56–0.97, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Once Caldas's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Once Caldas's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.92 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match1.92 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Once Caldas have a visible away split

moderate

Once Caldas's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.2 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.2 shots/match13.8 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots11 shotsAtlético Bucaramanga 12 shots, Once Caldas 11 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots2 shotsAtlético Bucaramanga 3 shots, Once Caldas 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.56 xG0.97 xGAtlético Bucaramanga 0.56 xG, Once Caldas 0.97 xG
  • Possession50%50%Atlético Bucaramanga 50%, Once Caldas 50%
  • Corners9 corners3 cornersAtlético Bucaramanga 9 corners, Once Caldas 3 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls9 foulsAtlético Bucaramanga 9 fouls, Once Caldas 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsAtlético Bucaramanga 1 card, Once Caldas 2 cards
  • Passes415 passes438 passesAtlético Bucaramanga 415 passes, Once Caldas 438 passes
  • Pass accuracy81%83%Atlético Bucaramanga 81%, Once Caldas 83%
  • Shots inside box4 shots5 shotsAtlético Bucaramanga 4 shots, Once Caldas 5 shots
  • Blocked shots6 blocks2 blocksAtlético Bucaramanga 6 blocks, Once Caldas 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save2 savesAtlético Bucaramanga 1 save, Once Caldas 2 saves
  • Offsides1 offside0 offsidesAtlético Bucaramanga 1 offside, Once Caldas 0 offsides

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlético Bucaramanga favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Once Caldas in 6 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlético Bucaramanga11 matchesOnce Caldas12 matches
1.45 goals/matchGoals scored11/12▲ 1.92 goals/match
0.55 goals/match ▲Goals allowed11/121.08 goals/match
0.91 xG/matchExpected goals6/10▲ 1.1 xG/match
12.4 shots/matchShots11/12▲ 13.8 shots/match
3.73 shots/matchShots on target11/12▲ 5.92 shots/match
52.5% ●Possession11/1252.5%
4.64 corners/matchCorners11/12● 5.67 corners/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1211 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples11 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 19 Mar 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlético BucaramangaOnce Caldas
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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