PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Palogrande

Once Caldas 4–2 Deportivo Pasto · Primera A

4–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Once Caldas won 4–2.

Shots
1221
Shots on target
75
Expected goals
1.312.47
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Once Caldas beat Deportivo Pasto 4–2. Recorded in this match (Once Caldas – Deportivo Pasto): shots 12–21, shots on target 7–5, expected goals 1.31–2.47, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Once Caldas's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Once Caldas's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match2 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Deportivo Pasto.

6.91 days ▲Rest daysOnce Caldas · Deportivo Pasto3.91 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricOnce CaldasDeportivo PastoBaseline
Rest days6.91 days3.91 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Once Caldas have a visible home split

moderate

Once Caldas's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.3 shots/match14 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots21 shotsOnce Caldas 12 shots, Deportivo Pasto 21 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots5 shotsOnce Caldas 7 shots, Deportivo Pasto 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.31 xG2.47 xGOnce Caldas 1.31 xG, Deportivo Pasto 2.47 xG
  • Possession50%50%Once Caldas 50%, Deportivo Pasto 50%
  • Corners2 corners7 cornersOnce Caldas 2 corners, Deportivo Pasto 7 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls11 foulsOnce Caldas 11 fouls, Deportivo Pasto 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card5 cardsOnce Caldas 1 card, Deportivo Pasto 5 cards
  • Passes413 passes403 passesOnce Caldas 413 passes, Deportivo Pasto 403 passes
  • Pass accuracy84%87%Once Caldas 84%, Deportivo Pasto 87%
  • Shots inside box5 shots8 shotsOnce Caldas 5 shots, Deportivo Pasto 8 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks6 blocksOnce Caldas 2 blocks, Deportivo Pasto 6 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves3 savesOnce Caldas 3 saves, Deportivo Pasto 3 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides2 offsidesOnce Caldas 3 offsides, Deportivo Pasto 2 offsides

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Once Caldas favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Deportivo Pasto in 5 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Once Caldas11 matchesDeportivo Pasto11 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored11/111.45 goals/match
1.09 goals/match ▲Goals allowed11/111.27 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goals9/6▲ 1.5 xG/match
14 shots/match ▲Shots11/1113 shots/match
6.27 shots/match ▲Shots on target11/114.18 shots/match
52.7% ●Possession11/1150.3%
5.91 corners/match ●Corners11/113.82 corners/match
3.2 cards/matchCards5/65 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls11/1111.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Mar 2026, 03:20 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsOnce CaldasDeportivo Pasto
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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