PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Cincuentenario

Rionegro Águilas Doradas 1–2 Atlético Nacional · Primera A

1–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Atlético Nacional won 1–2.

Shots
918
Shots on target
17
Expected goals
0.311.67
Possession
36%64%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atletico Nacional beat Águilas Doradas 2–1. Recorded in this match (Águilas Doradas – Atletico Nacional): shots 9–18, shots on target 1–7, expected goals 0.31–1.67, possession 36%–64%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Atletico Nacional's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atletico Nacional's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match2.13 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Águilas Doradas have a visible home split

moderate

Águilas Doradas's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Atletico Nacional show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Atletico Nacional's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.8 shots/match ▲ShotsÁguilas Doradas · Atletico Nacional16.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricÁguilas DoradasAtletico NacionalBaseline
Shots11.8 shots/match16.9 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against12.4 shots/match11.1 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots18 shotsRionegro Águilas Doradas 9 shots, Atlético Nacional 18 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot7 shotsRionegro Águilas Doradas 1 shot, Atlético Nacional 7 shots
  • Expected goals0.31 xG1.67 xGRionegro Águilas Doradas 0.31 xG, Atlético Nacional 1.67 xG
  • Possession36%64%Rionegro Águilas Doradas 36%, Atlético Nacional 64%
  • Corners1 corner6 cornersRionegro Águilas Doradas 1 corner, Atlético Nacional 6 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls21 foulsRionegro Águilas Doradas 12 fouls, Atlético Nacional 21 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards2 cardsRionegro Águilas Doradas 3 cards, Atlético Nacional 2 cards
  • Passes268 passes488 passesRionegro Águilas Doradas 268 passes, Atlético Nacional 488 passes
  • Pass accuracy66%78%Rionegro Águilas Doradas 66%, Atlético Nacional 78%
  • Shots inside box1 shot9 shotsRionegro Águilas Doradas 1 shot, Atlético Nacional 9 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks3 blocksRionegro Águilas Doradas 2 blocks, Atlético Nacional 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves5 saves0 savesRionegro Águilas Doradas 5 saves, Atlético Nacional 0 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides2 offsidesRionegro Águilas Doradas 2 offsides, Atlético Nacional 2 offsides

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Rionegro Águilas Doradas favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Nacional in 10 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Rionegro Águilas Doradas9 matchesAtlético Nacional8 matches
1.11 goals/matchGoals scored9/8▲ 2.13 goals/match
1.11 goals/matchGoals allowed9/8▲ 0.75 goals/match
0.53 xG/matchExpected goals4/8▲ 1.83 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots9/8▲ 16.9 shots/match
3.56 shots/matchShots on target9/8▲ 7.25 shots/match
46.7%Possession9/8● 53.9%
4.33 corners/matchCorners9/8● 5 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards3/33.33 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls9/813.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 01:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRionegro Águilas DoradasAtlético Nacional
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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