PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Deportes Tolima 1–0 Atlético Nacional · Primera A

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Deportes Tolima won 1–0.

Shots
1211
Shots on target
24
Expected goals
1.350.84
Possession
63%37%

Full time

What the match recorded

Deportes Tolima beat Atletico Nacional 1–0. Recorded in this match (Deportes Tolima – Atletico Nacional): shots 12–11, shots on target 2–4, expected goals 1.35–0.84, possession 63%–37%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Atletico Nacional have a visible away split

weak

Atletico Nacional's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12.7 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season16.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match16.7 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Deportes Tolima's recent record differs from the season

weak

Deportes Tolima's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots15 shots/match12.1 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atletico Nacional show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Atletico Nacional's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.1 shots/match ▲ShotsDeportes Tolima · Atletico Nacional16.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricDeportes TolimaAtletico NacionalBaseline
Shots12.1 shots/match16.7 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against12.7 shots/match11.4 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots11 shotsDeportes Tolima 12 shots, Atlético Nacional 11 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots4 shotsDeportes Tolima 2 shots, Atlético Nacional 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.35 xG0.84 xGDeportes Tolima 1.35 xG, Atlético Nacional 0.84 xG
  • Possession63%37%Deportes Tolima 63%, Atlético Nacional 37%
  • Corners6 corners4 cornersDeportes Tolima 6 corners, Atlético Nacional 4 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls9 foulsDeportes Tolima 13 fouls, Atlético Nacional 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards4 cardsDeportes Tolima 2 cards, Atlético Nacional 4 cards
  • Passes482 passes272 passesDeportes Tolima 482 passes, Atlético Nacional 272 passes
  • Pass accuracy87%76%Deportes Tolima 87%, Atlético Nacional 76%
  • Shots inside box7 shots6 shotsDeportes Tolima 7 shots, Atlético Nacional 6 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks3 blocksDeportes Tolima 4 blocks, Atlético Nacional 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves1 saveDeportes Tolima 4 saves, Atlético Nacional 1 save
  • Offsides3 offsides1 offsideDeportes Tolima 3 offsides, Atlético Nacional 1 offside

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Deportes Tolima favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Nacional in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Deportes Tolima9 matchesAtlético Nacional7 matches
1.22 goals/matchGoals scored9/7▲ 2.14 goals/match
0.78 goals/matchGoals allowed9/7▲ 0.71 goals/match
1.35 xG/matchExpected goals5/7▲ 1.85 xG/match
12.1 shots/matchShots9/7▲ 16.7 shots/match
4.33 shots/matchShots on target9/7▲ 7.29 shots/match
51.9%Possession9/7● 52.4%
5.33 corners/match ●Corners9/74.86 corners/match
3.4 cards/matchCards5/33.33 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls9/712.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 2 Mar 2026, 05:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsDeportes TolimaAtlético Nacional
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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