PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Independiente Medellín 1–2 Atlético Bucaramanga · Primera A

1–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Atlético Bucaramanga won 1–2.

Shots
196
Shots on target
103
Expected goals
2.440.58
Possession
58%42%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bucaramanga beat Independiente Medellin 2–1. Recorded in this match (Independiente Medellin – Bucaramanga): shots 19–6, shots on target 10–3, expected goals 2.44–0.58, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Independiente Medellin have a visible home split

weak

Independiente Medellin's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

21.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season15.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots21.3 shots/match15.6 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Independiente Medellin's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Independiente Medellin's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.22 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.22 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bucaramanga show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Bucaramanga's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

15.6 shots/match ▲ShotsIndependiente Medellin · Bucaramanga11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricIndependiente MedellinBucaramangaBaseline
Shots15.6 shots/match11.1 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against8.56 shots/match9.63 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots6 shotsIndependiente Medellín 19 shots, Atlético Bucaramanga 6 shots
  • Shots on target10 shots3 shotsIndependiente Medellín 10 shots, Atlético Bucaramanga 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.44 xG0.58 xGIndependiente Medellín 2.44 xG, Atlético Bucaramanga 0.58 xG
  • Possession58%42%Independiente Medellín 58%, Atlético Bucaramanga 42%
  • Corners12 corners2 cornersIndependiente Medellín 12 corners, Atlético Bucaramanga 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls8 foulsIndependiente Medellín 10 fouls, Atlético Bucaramanga 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards2 cardsIndependiente Medellín 4 cards, Atlético Bucaramanga 2 cards
  • Passes390 passes283 passesIndependiente Medellín 390 passes, Atlético Bucaramanga 283 passes
  • Pass accuracy81%76%Independiente Medellín 81%, Atlético Bucaramanga 76%
  • Shots inside box17 shots3 shotsIndependiente Medellín 17 shots, Atlético Bucaramanga 3 shots
  • Blocked shots5 blocks1 blockIndependiente Medellín 5 blocks, Atlético Bucaramanga 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save12 savesIndependiente Medellín 1 save, Atlético Bucaramanga 12 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides3 offsidesIndependiente Medellín 0 offsides, Atlético Bucaramanga 3 offsides

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Independiente Medellín favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Bucaramanga in 5 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Independiente Medellín9 matchesAtlético Bucaramanga8 matches
1.22 goals/matchGoals scored9/8▲ 1.5 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed9/8▲ 0.63 goals/match
1.31 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/30.93 xG/match
15.6 shots/match ▲Shots9/811.1 shots/match
5.11 shots/match ▲Shots on target9/83.88 shots/match
54.4% ●Possession9/852.1%
5.56 corners/match ●Corners9/83.75 corners/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls9/814.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 05:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsIndependiente MedellínAtlético Bucaramanga
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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