PitchMath
Allsvenskan · 2026

GAIS 0–1 Malmö FF · Allsvenskan

GAIS

DWLDW
0–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Malmö FF won 0–1.

Shots
145
Shots on target
61
Expected goals
1.280.22
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

Malmö FF beat GAIS 1–0. Recorded in this match (GAIS – Malmö FF): shots 14–5, shots on target 6–1, expected goals 1.28–0.22, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

GAIS's recent record differs from the season

moderate

GAIS's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.24 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.24 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

14 fouls/matchFoulsGAIS · Malmö FF14.8 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricGAISMalmö FFBaseline
Fouls14 fouls/match14.8 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots5 shotsGAIS 14 shots, Malmö FF 5 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots1 shotGAIS 6 shots, Malmö FF 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.28 xG0.22 xGGAIS 1.28 xG, Malmö FF 0.22 xG
  • Possession51%49%GAIS 51%, Malmö FF 49%
  • Corners8 corners3 cornersGAIS 8 corners, Malmö FF 3 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls20 foulsGAIS 12 fouls, Malmö FF 20 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards3 cardsGAIS 2 cards, Malmö FF 3 cards
  • Passes443 passes431 passesGAIS 443 passes, Malmö FF 431 passes
  • Pass accuracy81.7%82.4%GAIS 81.7%, Malmö FF 82.4%
  • Shots inside box8 shots2 shotsGAIS 8 shots, Malmö FF 2 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks2 blocksGAIS 4 blocks, Malmö FF 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save6 savesGAIS 1 save, Malmö FF 6 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides1 offsideGAIS 3 offsides, Malmö FF 1 offside

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Sead Hakšabanović · Malmö FF · 9′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedFilip Beckman · GAIS · 14′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedWilliam Milovanovic · GAIS · 15′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedRasmus Niklasson · GAIS · 15′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedJoackim Fagerjord · GAIS · 18′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedNikola Vasic · GAIS · 36′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedWilliam Milovanovic · GAIS · 42′ · 0.00 xG · on targetOtto Rosengren · Malmö FF · 44′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedAdrian Skogmar · Malmö FF · 46′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedRóbert Frosti Thorkelsson · GAIS · 90′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedSead Hakšabanović · Malmö FF · 29′ · 0.01 xG · on targetFilip Beckman · GAIS · 55′ · 0.01 xG · on targetRasmus Niklasson · GAIS · 86′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRóbert Frosti Thorkelsson · GAIS · 86′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJens Stryger Larsen · Malmö FF · 8′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNikola Vasic · GAIS · 26′ · 0.07 xG · on targetNikola Vasic · GAIS · 43′ · 0.07 xG · on targetFilip Beckman · Malmö FF · 53′ · 0.10 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

GAIS: 12 shots, 5 on target, 0.18 xG. Malmö FF: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.15 xG. · 1 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.250.50′HT90′Filip Beckman · Malmö FF · 53′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: GAIS 0.18 xG · Malmö FF 0.15 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0GAIS
2Draws
3Malmö FF
Malmö FF — GAIS · Allsvenskan3–1
Malmö FF — GAIS · Allsvenskan2–1
GAIS — Malmö FF · Allsvenskan0–0
GAIS — Malmö FF · Allsvenskan0–0
Malmö FF — GAIS · Allsvenskan1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: GAIS favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Malmö FF in 3 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

GAIS17 matchesMalmö FF17 matches
1.24 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲ 1.88 goals/match
0.94 goals/match ▲Goals allowed17/171.59 goals/match
1.85 xG/matchExpected goals9/11▲ 2.25 xG/match
15.5 shots/match ▲Shots17/1713.8 shots/match
5.24 shots/match ▲Shots on target17/174.65 shots/match
51.1%Possession17/17● 57.1%
5.71 corners/match ●Corners17/174.65 corners/match
14 fouls/matchFouls17/1714.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 16 Aug 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Allsvenskan

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsGAISMalmö FF
CompetitionAllsvenskan
Head-to-headGAIS — Malmö FF
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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