Allsvenskan · 2026Sun, 16 Aug 2026, 14:30 UTCScheduledPre-match analysis

GAIS

WDWLW

vsPre-match analysis

Malmö FF

WWWDL

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Malmö FF's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Malmö FF's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Malmö FF's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.6 goals/match	2 goals/match	1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

14.3 fouls/match▲FoulsGAIS · Malmö FF13.7 fouls/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	GAIS	Malmö FF	Baseline
Fouls	14.3 fouls/match	13.7 fouls/match	11.8 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0GAIS

0Draws

1Malmö FF

12 Apr 2026Malmo FF — Gais · Allsvenskan3–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

GAIS favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Malmö FF in 3 · 5 too close

1.33 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/14▲2 goals/match

0.93 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 15/141.71 goals/match

1.77 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 7/8▲2.5 xG/match

1.43 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 7/81.78 xG/match

15 shots/matchShotsseason · 15/1414.4 shots/match

12.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 15/1413.9 shots/match

5.07 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 15/144.86 shots/match

3.73 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 15/145.36 shots/match

50.4%Possessionseason · 15/1456.9%

5.27 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/144.86 corners/match

4.4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 15/145.71 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 2/0—

14.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1413.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

47%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/1429%

80%Scoring frequencyseason · 15/14▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

GAIS59.4

Malmö FF84.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

GAIS55.2

Malmö FF66.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

GAIS89.6

Malmö FF31.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

GAIS78.1

Malmö FF28.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

GAIS90.6

Malmö FF84.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

GAIS59.4

Malmö FF40.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

GAIS70.3

Malmö FF60.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.6 goals/match

0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match

2.01 xG/matchExpected goals4/5▲2.89 xG/match

17.2 shots/matchShots5/517 shots/match

5.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match

51.2%Possession5/566.6%

6.8 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/514.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.1 goals/match

0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match

1.93 xG/matchExpected goals6/8▲2.5 xG/match

15.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1015.1 shots/match

5.1 shots/matchShots on target10/105.2 shots/match

48.8%Possession10/1059.9%

5.9 corners/matchCorners10/104.6 corners/match

—Cards2/0—

12.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 14 matches

1.33 goals/matchGoals scored15/14▲2 goals/match

0.93 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/141.71 goals/match

1.77 xG/matchExpected goals7/8▲2.5 xG/match

15 shots/matchShots15/1414.4 shots/match

5.07 shots/matchShots on target15/144.86 shots/match

50.4%Possession15/1456.9%

5.27 corners/matchCorners15/144.86 corners/match

—Cards2/0—

14.3 fouls/matchFouls15/1413.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches

1.57 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.29 goals/match

0.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.43 goals/match

1.63 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.96 xG/match

16.6 shots/match▲Shots7/713.1 shots/match

5.43 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.57 shots/match

45.7%Possession7/754.1%

5.57 corners/matchCorners7/75 corners/match

—Cards1/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFouls7/712.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples15 / 14home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness7 daysfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 16 Aug 2026, 14:30 UTC · analysis-v4