PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Vitória 1–3 Cruzeiro · Serie A

1–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Cruzeiro won 1–3.

Shots
2114
Shots on target
85
Expected goals
0.591.01
Possession
43%57%

Full time

What the match recorded

Cruzeiro beat Vitória 3–1. Recorded in this match (Vitória – Cruzeiro): shots 21–14, shots on target 8–5, expected goals 0.59–1.01, possession 43%–57%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Vitória's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Vitória's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots15.4 shots/match12 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Vitória have a visible home split

moderate

Vitória's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.5 shots/match12 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Cruzeiro have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.8%PossessionVitória · Cruzeiro● 55%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVitóriaCruzeiroBaseline
Possession43.8%55%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots14 shotsVitória 21 shots, Cruzeiro 14 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots5 shotsVitória 8 shots, Cruzeiro 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.59 xG1.01 xGVitória 0.59 xG, Cruzeiro 1.01 xG
  • Possession43%57%Vitória 43%, Cruzeiro 57%
  • Corners8 corners2 cornersVitória 8 corners, Cruzeiro 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls19 foulsVitória 10 fouls, Cruzeiro 19 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards3 cardsVitória 0 cards, Cruzeiro 3 cards
  • Passes393 passes522 passesVitória 393 passes, Cruzeiro 522 passes
  • Pass accuracy79.9%88.1%Vitória 79.9%, Cruzeiro 88.1%
  • Shots inside box8 shots9 shotsVitória 8 shots, Cruzeiro 9 shots
  • Blocked shots6 blocks4 blocksVitória 6 blocks, Cruzeiro 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves6 savesVitória 2 saves, Cruzeiro 6 saves
  • Offsides4 offsides1 offsideVitória 4 offsides, Cruzeiro 1 offside

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Vitória
2Draws
3Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro — Vitória · Serie A3–0
Cruzeiro — Vitória · Serie A3–1
Vitória — Cruzeiro · Serie A0–0
Vitória — Cruzeiro · Serie A2–2
Cruzeiro — Vitória · Serie A3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Vitória favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Cruzeiro in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Vitória26 matchesCruzeiro26 matches
1.08 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲ 1.58 goals/match
1.38 goals/match ▲Goals allowed26/261.5 goals/match
0.88 xG/matchExpected goals23/22▲ 1.4 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots26/26▲ 14.2 shots/match
4.15 shots/matchShots on target26/26▲ 4.88 shots/match
43.8%Possession26/26● 55%
4.35 corners/matchCorners26/26● 5.12 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCards4/42.75 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls26/2614.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVitóriaCruzeiro
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headVitória — Cruzeiro
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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