PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Mirassol 2–2 Vitória · Serie A

2–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Mirassol and Vitória drew 2–2.

Shots
278
Shots on target
66
Expected goals
1.461.64
Possession
76%24%

Full time

What the match recorded

Mirassol and Vitória drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Mirassol – Vitória): shots 27–8, shots on target 6–6, expected goals 1.46–1.64, possession 76%–24%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Vitória's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Vitória's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15.6 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots15.6 shots/match11.6 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Vitória have a visible away split

moderate

Vitória's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.38 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.38 shots/match11.6 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Mirassol.

7.21 days ▲Rest daysMirassol · Vitória5.83 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricMirassolVitóriaBaseline
Rest days7.21 days5.83 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches1 match—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots27 shots8 shotsMirassol 27 shots, Vitória 8 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots6 shotsMirassol 6 shots, Vitória 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.46 xG1.64 xGMirassol 1.46 xG, Vitória 1.64 xG
  • Possession76%24%Mirassol 76%, Vitória 24%
  • Corners12 corners5 cornersMirassol 12 corners, Vitória 5 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls17 foulsMirassol 14 fouls, Vitória 17 fouls
  • Yellow cards5 cards5 cardsMirassol 5 cards, Vitória 5 cards
  • Passes593 passes187 passesMirassol 593 passes, Vitória 187 passes
  • Pass accuracy90.7%70.6%Mirassol 90.7%, Vitória 70.6%
  • Shots inside box9 shots3 shotsMirassol 9 shots, Vitória 3 shots
  • Blocked shots11 blocks1 blockMirassol 11 blocks, Vitória 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves4 savesMirassol 4 saves, Vitória 4 saves
  • Offsides1 offside2 offsidesMirassol 1 offside, Vitória 2 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Mirassol
2Draws
2Vitória
Vitória — Mirassol · Serie A1–0
Vitória — Mirassol · Serie A2–0
Mirassol — Vitória · Serie A1–1
Vitória — Mirassol · Serie B0–0
Mirassol — Vitória · Serie B2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Mirassol favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Vitória in 2 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Mirassol25 matchesVitória25 matches
1.12 goals/matchGoals scored25/251.08 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲ 1.32 goals/match
1.04 xG/match ▲Expected goals22/220.89 xG/match
14 shots/match ▲Shots25/2511.6 shots/match
4.52 shots/match ▲Shots on target25/254 shots/match
50.8% ●Possession25/2543.8%
5.52 corners/match ●Corners25/254.2 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards5/42.75 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls25/2513.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMirassolVitória
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headMirassol — Vitória
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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