PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Vitória 1–0 Grêmio · Serie A

1–0Full-time analysis

Grêmio

LWLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Vitória won 1–0.

Shots
2011
Shots on target
65
Expected goals
1.670.45
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Vitória beat Grêmio 1–0. Recorded in this match (Vitória – Grêmio): shots 20–11, shots on target 6–5, expected goals 1.67–0.45, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Vitória's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Vitória's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.04 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.04 goals/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Grêmio have a visible away split

moderate

Grêmio's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.92 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.92 shots/match11.2 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots11 shotsVitória 20 shots, Grêmio 11 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots5 shotsVitória 6 shots, Grêmio 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.67 xG0.45 xGVitória 1.67 xG, Grêmio 0.45 xG
  • Possession47%53%Vitória 47%, Grêmio 53%
  • Corners6 corners1 cornerVitória 6 corners, Grêmio 1 corner
  • Fouls13 fouls19 foulsVitória 13 fouls, Grêmio 19 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards5 cardsVitória 2 cards, Grêmio 5 cards
  • Passes393 passes472 passesVitória 393 passes, Grêmio 472 passes
  • Pass accuracy81.9%83.7%Vitória 81.9%, Grêmio 83.7%
  • Shots inside box10 shots4 shotsVitória 10 shots, Grêmio 4 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks2 blocksVitória 4 blocks, Grêmio 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves5 saves5 savesVitória 5 saves, Grêmio 5 saves
  • Offsides1 offside1 offsideVitória 1 offside, Grêmio 1 offside

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Vitória
2Draws
3Grêmio
Grêmio — Vitória · Serie A2–0
Grêmio — Vitória · Serie A3–1
Vitória — Grêmio · Serie A1–1
Vitória — Grêmio · Serie A1–1
Grêmio — Vitória · Serie A2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Vitória favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Grêmio in 1 · 6 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Vitória24 matchesGrêmio24 matches
1.04 goals/matchGoals scored24/241.08 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed24/241.33 goals/match
0.86 xG/match ▲Expected goals21/200.8 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots24/2411.2 shots/match
3.92 shots/match ▲Shots on target24/243.54 shots/match
44.6%Possession24/24● 49.8%
4.17 corners/match ●Corners24/244.08 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCards4/42.5 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls24/2413.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 8 Sept 2026, 03:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVitóriaGrêmio
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headVitória — Grêmio
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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