PitchMath
Serie A · 2026MRV Arena

Atlético Mineiro vs Chapecoense · Serie A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.321.04
Expected goals
1.320.96
Shots
13.313.2
Possession
49.3%43%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: chapecoense-sc's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Chapecoense-sc's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Chapecoense-sc's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.04 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.04 goals/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlético Mineiro favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Chapecoense in 2 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlético Mineiro25 matchesChapecoense25 matches
1.32 goals/match ▲Goals scored25/251.04 goals/match
1.2 goals/match ▲Goals allowed25/252 goals/match
1.32 xG/match ▲Expected goals21/220.96 xG/match
13.3 shots/matchShots25/2513.2 shots/match
4.44 shots/match ▲Shots on target25/253.52 shots/match
49.3% ●Possession25/2543%
4.8 corners/match ●Corners25/254.04 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/31.33 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls25/2513.4 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Atlético Mineiro
1Draws
0Chapecoense
Atlético Mineiro — Chapecoense · Serie A1–1
Chapecoense — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A0–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness8 daysfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlético MineiroChapecoense
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headAtlético Mineiro — Chapecoense
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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