PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Athletico 2–1 Bahia · Serie A

2–1Full-time analysis

Bahia

DWWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Athletico won 2–1.

Shots
1110
Shots on target
63
Expected goals
0.741.14
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Athletico beat Bahia 2–1. Recorded in this match (Athletico – Bahia): shots 11–10, shots on target 6–3, expected goals 0.74–1.14, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Athletico's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Athletico's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.58 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.58 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Bahia have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.5%PossessionAthletico · Bahia● 54.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAthleticoBahiaBaseline
Possession46.5%54.9%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots10 shotsAthletico 11 shots, Bahia 10 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots3 shotsAthletico 6 shots, Bahia 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.74 xG1.14 xGAthletico 0.74 xG, Bahia 1.14 xG
  • Possession50%50%Athletico 50%, Bahia 50%
  • Corners6 corners3 cornersAthletico 6 corners, Bahia 3 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls13 foulsAthletico 8 fouls, Bahia 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards2 cardsAthletico 3 cards, Bahia 2 cards
  • Passes491 passes516 passesAthletico 491 passes, Bahia 516 passes
  • Pass accuracy87%88.4%Athletico 87%, Bahia 88.4%
  • Shots inside box9 shots8 shotsAthletico 9 shots, Bahia 8 shots
  • Blocked shots1 block3 blocksAthletico 1 block, Bahia 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves4 savesAthletico 2 saves, Bahia 4 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides2 offsidesAthletico 2 offsides, Bahia 2 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Athletico
2Draws
2Bahia
Bahia — Athletico · Serie A3–0
Bahia — Athletico · Serie A1–1
Athletico — Bahia · Serie A1–3
Bahia — Athletico · Serie A1–1
Athletico — Bahia · Serie A2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Athletico favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Bahia in 6 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Athletico26 matchesBahia26 matches
1.58 goals/matchGoals scored26/261.62 goals/match
1.23 goals/match ▲Goals allowed26/261.31 goals/match
1.34 xG/matchExpected goals22/23▲ 1.71 xG/match
12.5 shots/matchShots26/26▲ 14.8 shots/match
5.12 shots/matchShots on target26/265.35 shots/match
46.5%Possession26/26● 54.9%
4.88 corners/matchCorners26/26● 5.77 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/34 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls26/2614.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 21 Sept 2026, 02:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAthleticoBahia
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headAthletico — Bahia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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