PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Allianz Parque

Palmeiras 1–1 Cruzeiro · Serie A

1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Palmeiras and Cruzeiro drew 1–1.

Shots
1611
Shots on target
24
Expected goals
1.050.44
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Palmeiras and Cruzeiro drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Palmeiras – Cruzeiro): shots 16–11, shots on target 2–4, expected goals 1.05–0.44, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Palmeiras's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Palmeiras's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.63 goals/match1.31 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Palmeiras have a visible home split

moderate

Palmeiras's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.5 shots/match13.2 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots11 shotsPalmeiras 16 shots, Cruzeiro 11 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots4 shotsPalmeiras 2 shots, Cruzeiro 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.05 xG0.44 xGPalmeiras 1.05 xG, Cruzeiro 0.44 xG
  • Possession47%53%Palmeiras 47%, Cruzeiro 53%
  • Corners6 corners5 cornersPalmeiras 6 corners, Cruzeiro 5 corners
  • Fouls19 fouls14 foulsPalmeiras 19 fouls, Cruzeiro 14 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Palmeiras
2Draws
1Cruzeiro
Palmeiras — Cruzeiro · Serie A0–0
Cruzeiro — Palmeiras · Serie A2–1
Cruzeiro — Palmeiras · Serie A1–2
Palmeiras — Cruzeiro · Serie A2–0
Cruzeiro — Palmeiras · Serie A1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Palmeiras favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Cruzeiro in 4 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Palmeiras16 matchesCruzeiro16 matches
1.63 goals/match ▲Goals scored16/161.31 goals/match
0.81 goals/match ▲Goals allowed16/161.63 goals/match
0.85 xG/matchExpected goals12/12▲ 1.3 xG/match
13.2 shots/matchShots16/1613.6 shots/match
4.44 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲ 4.69 shots/match
49.3%Possession16/16● 55.2%
6.31 corners/match ●Corners16/165.13 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/42.75 cards/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls16/1614.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 18 May 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPalmeirasCruzeiro
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headPalmeiras — Cruzeiro
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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