PitchMath
Serie A · 2026MRV Arena

Atlético Mineiro 3–1 Mirassol · Serie A

3–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Atlético Mineiro won 3–1.

Shots
157
Shots on target
63
Expected goals
2.540.87
Possession
49%51%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atletico-MG beat Mirassol 3–1. Recorded in this match (Atletico-MG – Mirassol): shots 15–7, shots on target 6–3, expected goals 2.54–0.87, possession 49%–51%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Mirassol's recent record differs from the season

weak

Mirassol's last-five shots average is below their season average.

11.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots11.2 shots/match14.3 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Mirassol have a visible away split

moderate

Mirassol's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.7 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.7 shots/match14.3 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots7 shotsAtlético Mineiro 15 shots, Mirassol 7 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots3 shotsAtlético Mineiro 6 shots, Mirassol 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.54 xG0.87 xGAtlético Mineiro 2.54 xG, Mirassol 0.87 xG
  • Possession49%51%Atlético Mineiro 49%, Mirassol 51%
  • Corners5 corners6 cornersAtlético Mineiro 5 corners, Mirassol 6 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls14 foulsAtlético Mineiro 6 fouls, Mirassol 14 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Atlético Mineiro
1Draws
0Mirassol
Atlético Mineiro — Mirassol · Serie A1–0
Mirassol — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlético Mineiro favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Mirassol in 2 · 5 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlético Mineiro16 matchesMirassol15 matches
1.31 goals/match ▲Goals scored16/151.13 goals/match
1.38 goals/match ▲Goals allowed16/151.53 goals/match
1.28 xG/match ▲Expected goals12/121.08 xG/match
13.9 shots/matchShots16/1514.3 shots/match
4.69 shots/matchShots on target16/154.53 shots/match
49.1%Possession16/15● 52.8%
5.25 corners/matchCorners16/15● 5.93 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/33 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls16/1512.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples16 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 18 May 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlético MineiroMirassol
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headAtlético Mineiro — Mirassol
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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