PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Arena Fonte Nova

Bahia 1–1 Grêmio · Serie A

Bahia

WLDDL
1–1Full-time analysis

Grêmio

DLWDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Bahia and Grêmio drew 1–1.

Shots
173
Shots on target
61
Expected goals
1.920.16
Possession
60%40%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bahia and Gremio drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Bahia – Gremio): shots 17–3, shots on target 6–1, expected goals 1.92–0.16, possession 60%–40%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Gremio's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Gremio's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1 goal/match1.31 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Gremio have a visible away split

moderate

Gremio's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.11 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.11 shots/match11.3 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots3 shotsBahia 17 shots, Grêmio 3 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots1 shotBahia 6 shots, Grêmio 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.92 xG0.16 xGBahia 1.92 xG, Grêmio 0.16 xG
  • Possession60%40%Bahia 60%, Grêmio 40%
  • Corners7 corners3 cornersBahia 7 corners, Grêmio 3 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls14 foulsBahia 18 fouls, Grêmio 14 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Bahia
0Draws
2Grêmio
Bahia — Grêmio · Serie A4–0
Grêmio — Bahia · Serie A1–0
Grêmio — Bahia · Serie A0–2
Bahia — Grêmio · Serie A1–0
Grêmio — Bahia · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bahia favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Grêmio in 5 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bahia15 matchesGrêmio16 matches
1.4 goals/match ▲Goals scored15/161 goal/match
1.27 goals/matchGoals allowed15/16▲ 1.13 goals/match
1.45 xG/match ▲Expected goals12/120.69 xG/match
13.3 shots/match ▲Shots15/1611.3 shots/match
5.4 shots/match ▲Shots on target15/163.5 shots/match
53.2% ●Possession15/1649.9%
5.53 corners/match ●Corners15/163.63 corners/match
4 cards/matchCards3/42.5 cards/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls15/1613.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples15 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 18 May 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBahiaGrêmio
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headBahia — Grêmio
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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