PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Grêmio 0–1 Flamengo · Serie A

Grêmio

DDLWD
0–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Flamengo won 0–1.

Shots
620
Shots on target
35
Expected goals
0.262.77
Possession
32%68%

Full time

What the match recorded

Flamengo beat Gremio 1–0. Recorded in this match (Gremio – Flamengo): shots 6–20, shots on target 3–5, expected goals 0.26–2.77, possession 32%–68%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Gremio's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Gremio's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match1 goal/match1.31 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Gremio have a visible home split

moderate

Gremio's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.3 shots/match11.8 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots6 shots20 shotsGrêmio 6 shots, Flamengo 20 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots5 shotsGrêmio 3 shots, Flamengo 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.26 xG2.77 xGGrêmio 0.26 xG, Flamengo 2.77 xG
  • Possession32%68%Grêmio 32%, Flamengo 68%
  • Corners0 corners6 cornersGrêmio 0 corners, Flamengo 6 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls10 foulsGrêmio 10 fouls, Flamengo 10 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Grêmio
1Draws
2Flamengo
Flamengo — Grêmio · Serie A1–1
Grêmio — Flamengo · Serie A0–2
Grêmio — Flamengo · Serie A3–2
Flamengo — Grêmio · Serie A2–1
Grêmio — Flamengo · Serie A3–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Grêmio favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Flamengo in 9 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Grêmio15 matchesFlamengo14 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored15/14▲ 1.93 goals/match
1.13 goals/matchGoals allowed15/14▲ 0.86 goals/match
0.74 xG/matchExpected goals11/11▲ 1.56 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots15/14▲ 14.1 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target15/14▲ 4.93 shots/match
50.5%Possession15/14● 54%
3.67 corners/matchCorners15/14● 4 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards4/32.67 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls15/1413.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples15 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 11 May 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsGrêmioFlamengo
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headGrêmio — Flamengo
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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