PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Arena Fonte Nova

Bahia 1–2 Cruzeiro · Serie A

Bahia

LWLDD
1–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Cruzeiro won 1–2.

Shots
820
Shots on target
37
Expected goals
1.22.17
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

Cruzeiro beat Bahia 2–1. Recorded in this match (Bahia – Cruzeiro): shots 8–20, shots on target 3–7, expected goals 1.2–2.17, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Cruzeiro's recent record differs from the season

weak

Cruzeiro's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.33 goals/match1.31 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots20 shotsBahia 8 shots, Cruzeiro 20 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots7 shotsBahia 3 shots, Cruzeiro 7 shots
  • Expected goals1.2 xG2.17 xGBahia 1.2 xG, Cruzeiro 2.17 xG
  • Possession46%54%Bahia 46%, Cruzeiro 54%
  • Corners6 corners8 cornersBahia 6 corners, Cruzeiro 8 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls16 foulsBahia 14 fouls, Cruzeiro 16 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Bahia
1Draws
3Cruzeiro
Bahia — Cruzeiro · Serie A1–2
Cruzeiro — Bahia · Serie A3–0
Cruzeiro — Bahia · Serie A1–1
Bahia — Cruzeiro · Serie A4–1
Cruzeiro — Bahia · Serie A3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bahia favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Cruzeiro in 4 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bahia14 matchesCruzeiro15 matches
1.43 goals/match ▲Goals scored14/151.33 goals/match
1.29 goals/match ▲Goals allowed14/151.67 goals/match
1.41 xG/matchExpected goals11/111.38 xG/match
13.1 shots/matchShots14/1513.7 shots/match
5.36 shots/match ▲Shots on target14/154.73 shots/match
52.7%Possession14/15● 55.3%
5.43 corners/match ●Corners14/155.13 corners/match
4 cards/matchCards3/42.75 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFouls14/1514.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples14 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 11 May 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBahiaCruzeiro
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headBahia — Cruzeiro
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required