PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Cruzeiro 1–3 Atlético Mineiro · Serie A

1–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Atlético Mineiro won 1–3.

Shots
146
Shots on target
24
Expected goals
1.311.74
Possession
69%31%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atletico-MG beat Cruzeiro 3–1. Recorded in this match (Cruzeiro – Atletico-MG): shots 14–6, shots on target 2–4, expected goals 1.31–1.74, possession 69%–31%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Atletico-MG's recent record differs from the season

weak

Atletico-MG's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.21 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.21 goals/match1.26 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots6 shotsCruzeiro 14 shots, Atlético Mineiro 6 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots4 shotsCruzeiro 2 shots, Atlético Mineiro 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.31 xG1.74 xGCruzeiro 1.31 xG, Atlético Mineiro 1.74 xG
  • Possession69%31%Cruzeiro 69%, Atlético Mineiro 31%
  • Corners5 corners1 cornerCruzeiro 5 corners, Atlético Mineiro 1 corner
  • Fouls15 fouls17 foulsCruzeiro 15 fouls, Atlético Mineiro 17 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Cruzeiro
3Draws
0Atlético Mineiro
Atlético Mineiro — Cruzeiro · Serie A1–1
Cruzeiro — Atlético Mineiro · Copa do Brasil2–0
Atlético Mineiro — Cruzeiro · Copa do Brasil0–2
Cruzeiro — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A0–0
Cruzeiro — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cruzeiro favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Mineiro in 1 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cruzeiro14 matchesAtlético Mineiro14 matches
1.29 goals/match ▲Goals scored14/141.21 goals/match
1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲ 1.43 goals/match
1.3 xG/match ▲Expected goals10/101.2 xG/match
13.3 shots/matchShots14/1413.6 shots/match
4.57 shots/matchShots on target14/144.43 shots/match
55.4% ●Possession14/1449.5%
4.93 corners/matchCorners14/14● 5.21 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCards4/42 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 4 May 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCruzeiroAtlético Mineiro
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headCruzeiro — Atlético Mineiro
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required