PitchMath
Serie A · 2026MRV Arena

Atlético Mineiro 0–4 Flamengo · Serie A

0–4Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Flamengo won 0–4.

Shots
189
Shots on target
66
Expected goals
0.912.28
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

Flamengo beat Atletico-MG 4–0. Recorded in this match (Atletico-MG – Flamengo): shots 18–9, shots on target 6–6, expected goals 0.91–2.28, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Atletico-MG's recent record differs from the season

weak

Atletico-MG's last-five shots average is above their season average.

17.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots17.4 shots/match14.2 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Flamengo have a visible away split

moderate

Flamengo's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.7 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.7 shots/match13.8 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots9 shotsAtlético Mineiro 18 shots, Flamengo 9 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots6 shotsAtlético Mineiro 6 shots, Flamengo 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.91 xG2.28 xGAtlético Mineiro 0.91 xG, Flamengo 2.28 xG
  • Possession51%49%Atlético Mineiro 51%, Flamengo 49%
  • Corners8 corners1 cornerAtlético Mineiro 8 corners, Flamengo 1 corner
  • Fouls10 fouls13 foulsAtlético Mineiro 10 fouls, Flamengo 13 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Atlético Mineiro
2Draws
2Flamengo
Atlético Mineiro — Flamengo · Serie A1–1
Atlético Mineiro — Flamengo · Copa do Brasil0–1
Flamengo — Atlético Mineiro · Copa do Brasil0–1
Flamengo — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A1–0
Flamengo — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlético Mineiro favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Flamengo in 10 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlético Mineiro13 matchesFlamengo12 matches
1.08 goals/matchGoals scored13/12▲ 2 goals/match
1.46 goals/matchGoals allowed13/12▲ 0.83 goals/match
1.13 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲ 1.36 xG/match
14.2 shots/matchShots13/1213.8 shots/match
4.46 shots/matchShots on target13/12▲ 4.83 shots/match
50.9%Possession13/12● 53.3%
5.54 corners/match ●Corners13/123.75 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/32.67 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls13/1213.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples13 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 27 Apr 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlético MineiroFlamengo
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headAtlético Mineiro — Flamengo
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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