PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Arena Fonte Nova

Bahia 2–2 Santos · Serie A

Bahia

LWLWL
2–2Full-time analysis

Santos

DWLWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Bahia and Santos drew 2–2.

Shots
1811
Shots on target
55
Expected goals
1.242.63
Possession
64%36%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bahia and Santos drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Bahia – Santos): shots 18–11, shots on target 5–5, expected goals 1.24–2.63, possession 64%–36%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bahia have a visible home split

moderate

Bahia's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.2 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.2 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Santos's recent record differs from the season

weak

Santos's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.38 goals/match1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots11 shotsBahia 18 shots, Santos 11 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots5 shotsBahia 5 shots, Santos 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.24 xG2.63 xGBahia 1.24 xG, Santos 2.63 xG
  • Possession64%36%Bahia 64%, Santos 36%
  • Corners5 corners3 cornersBahia 5 corners, Santos 3 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls17 foulsBahia 16 fouls, Santos 17 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Bahia
1Draws
2Santos
Bahia — Santos · Serie A2–0
Santos — Bahia · Serie A2–2
Bahia — Santos · Serie A1–2
Santos — Bahia · Serie A3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bahia favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Santos in 3 · 5 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bahia12 matchesSantos13 matches
1.42 goals/matchGoals scored12/131.38 goals/match
1.17 goals/match ▲Goals allowed12/131.62 goals/match
1.38 xG/match ▲Expected goals9/91.26 xG/match
12.9 shots/match ▲Shots12/1312.2 shots/match
5.33 shots/match ▲Shots on target12/133.23 shots/match
52.6% ●Possession12/1347.2%
5 corners/matchCorners12/13● 5.38 corners/match
4 cards/matchCards3/43 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls12/1313.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples12 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 27 Apr 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBahiaSantos
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headBahia — Santos
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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