PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Estadio Urbano Caldeira

Santos 2–3 Fluminense · Serie A

Santos

LDWLW
2–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Fluminense won 2–3.

Shots
710
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
1.30.64
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fluminense beat Santos 3–2. Recorded in this match (Santos – Fluminense): shots 7–10, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 1.3–0.64, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Fluminense have recorded the higher season possession share.

48.2%PossessionSantos · Fluminense● 59.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricSantosFluminenseBaseline
Possession48.2%59.7%51.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots10 shotsSantos 7 shots, Fluminense 10 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsSantos 4 shots, Fluminense 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.3 xG0.64 xGSantos 1.3 xG, Fluminense 0.64 xG
  • Possession47%53%Santos 47%, Fluminense 53%
  • Corners6 corners4 cornersSantos 6 corners, Fluminense 4 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls14 foulsSantos 13 fouls, Fluminense 14 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Santos
2Draws
3Fluminense
Santos — Fluminense · Serie A0–0
Fluminense — Santos · Serie A1–0
Santos — Fluminense · Serie A0–3
Fluminense — Santos · Serie A1–0
Santos — Fluminense · Serie A2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Santos favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Fluminense in 8 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Santos12 matchesFluminense12 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲ 1.75 goals/match
1.58 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲ 1.25 goals/match
1.09 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 1.26 xG/match
12.3 shots/matchShots12/12▲ 15.2 shots/match
3.08 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲ 5.92 shots/match
48.2%Possession12/12● 59.7%
5.58 corners/matchCorners12/12● 5.92 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards4/43.5 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls12/1214 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 20 Apr 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSantosFluminense
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headSantos — Fluminense
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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