PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Estadio Urbano Caldeira

Santos 1–0 Atlético Mineiro · Serie A

Santos

DLDWL
1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Santos won 1–0.

Shots
1811
Shots on target
23
Expected goals
1.320.73
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

Santos beat Atletico-MG 1–0. Recorded in this match (Santos – Atletico-MG): shots 18–11, shots on target 2–3, expected goals 1.32–0.73, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Santos's recent record differs from the season

weak

Santos's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.27 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.27 goals/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots11 shotsSantos 18 shots, Atlético Mineiro 11 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots3 shotsSantos 2 shots, Atlético Mineiro 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.32 xG0.73 xGSantos 1.32 xG, Atlético Mineiro 0.73 xG
  • Possession45%55%Santos 45%, Atlético Mineiro 55%
  • Corners5 corners7 cornersSantos 5 corners, Atlético Mineiro 7 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls17 foulsSantos 8 fouls, Atlético Mineiro 17 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Santos
2Draws
2Atlético Mineiro
Atlético Mineiro — Santos · Serie A1–1
Santos — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A2–0
Atlético Mineiro — Santos · Serie A2–0
Santos — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A0–0
Santos — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Santos favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Mineiro in 3 · 6 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Santos11 matchesAtlético Mineiro11 matches
1.27 goals/matchGoals scored11/111.27 goals/match
1.45 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲ 1.18 goals/match
1.06 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲ 1.16 xG/match
12.7 shots/matchShots11/1113.1 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲ 4.09 shots/match
48.3%Possession11/11● 48.5%
5.55 corners/match ●Corners11/115.09 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards4/42 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls11/1111.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 13 Apr 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSantosAtlético Mineiro
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headSantos — Atlético Mineiro
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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