PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos

Botafogo 2–2 Coritiba · Serie A

2–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Botafogo and Coritiba drew 2–2.

Shots
2114
Shots on target
85
Expected goals
1.811.04
Possession
61%39%

Full time

What the match recorded

Botafogo and Coritiba drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Botafogo – Coritiba): shots 21–14, shots on target 8–5, expected goals 1.81–1.04, possession 61%–39%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Botafogo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Botafogo's last-five shots average is above their season average.

14 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots14 shots/match10.7 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Botafogo.

7 days ▲Rest daysBotafogo · Coritiba7 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBotafogoCoritibaBaseline
Rest days7 days7 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots14 shotsBotafogo 21 shots, Coritiba 14 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots5 shotsBotafogo 8 shots, Coritiba 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.81 xG1.04 xGBotafogo 1.81 xG, Coritiba 1.04 xG
  • Possession61%39%Botafogo 61%, Coritiba 39%
  • Corners7 corners4 cornersBotafogo 7 corners, Coritiba 4 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls7 foulsBotafogo 14 fouls, Coritiba 7 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Botafogo
1Draws
1Coritiba
Coritiba — Botafogo · Serie A1–1
Botafogo — Coritiba · Serie A4–1
Botafogo — Coritiba · Serie A2–0
Coritiba — Botafogo · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Botafogo favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Coritiba in 4 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Botafogo10 matchesCoritiba11 matches
1.8 goals/match ▲Goals scored10/111.18 goals/match
2.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/11▲ 1.09 goals/match
1.23 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/70.84 xG/match
10.7 shots/matchShots10/1111 shots/match
4.3 shots/match ▲Shots on target10/113.18 shots/match
47% ●Possession10/1139.5%
3.3 corners/matchCorners10/11● 3.36 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards3/42.25 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1110.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples10 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 13 Apr 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBotafogoCoritiba
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headBotafogo — Coritiba
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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