PitchMath
Serie A · 2026MRV Arena

Atlético Mineiro 1–1 Botafogo · Serie A

1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Atlético Mineiro and Botafogo drew 1–1.

Shots
1718
Shots on target
75
Expected goals
0.921.69
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atletico-MG and Botafogo drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Atletico-MG – Botafogo): shots 17–18, shots on target 7–5, expected goals 0.92–1.69, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Botafogo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Botafogo's last-five shots average is above their season average.

16.8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots16.8 shots/match12.1 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots18 shotsAtlético Mineiro 17 shots, Botafogo 18 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots5 shotsAtlético Mineiro 7 shots, Botafogo 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.92 xG1.69 xGAtlético Mineiro 0.92 xG, Botafogo 1.69 xG
  • Possession44%56%Atlético Mineiro 44%, Botafogo 56%
  • Corners6 corners4 cornersAtlético Mineiro 6 corners, Botafogo 4 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls12 foulsAtlético Mineiro 9 fouls, Botafogo 12 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Atlético Mineiro
1Draws
2Botafogo
Botafogo — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A1–0
Atlético Mineiro — Botafogo · Serie A1–0
Atlético Mineiro — Botafogo · Serie A0–0
Botafogo — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A3–0
Atlético Mineiro — Botafogo · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlético Mineiro favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Botafogo in 4 · 5 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlético Mineiro15 matchesBotafogo14 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored15/14▲ 1.86 goals/match
1.4 goals/match ▲Goals allowed15/141.93 goals/match
1.17 xG/matchExpected goals11/11▲ 1.29 xG/match
13.9 shots/match ▲Shots15/1412.1 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target15/14▲ 4.86 shots/match
49.1%Possession15/14● 49.1%
5.27 corners/match ●Corners15/143.79 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/32.33 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls15/1412.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples15 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 11 May 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlético MineiroBotafogo
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headAtlético Mineiro — Botafogo
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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