PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Estadio Do MorumBIS

São Paulo 2–2 Bahia · Serie A

2–2Full-time analysis

Bahia

WLWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

São Paulo and Bahia drew 2–2.

Shots
1820
Shots on target
88
Expected goals
2.141.92
Possession
39%61%

Full time

What the match recorded

Sao Paulo and Bahia drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Sao Paulo – Bahia): shots 18–20, shots on target 8–8, expected goals 2.14–1.92, possession 39%–61%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bahia's recent record differs from the season

weak

Bahia's last-five shots average is above their season average.

16.8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots16.8 shots/match13.5 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots20 shotsSão Paulo 18 shots, Bahia 20 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots8 shotsSão Paulo 8 shots, Bahia 8 shots
  • Expected goals2.14 xG1.92 xGSão Paulo 2.14 xG, Bahia 1.92 xG
  • Possession39%61%São Paulo 39%, Bahia 61%
  • Corners14 corners10 cornersSão Paulo 14 corners, Bahia 10 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls12 foulsSão Paulo 12 fouls, Bahia 12 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4São Paulo
0Draws
1Bahia
São Paulo — Bahia · Serie A2–0
Bahia — São Paulo · Serie A2–1
Bahia — São Paulo · Serie A0–3
São Paulo — Bahia · Serie A3–1
Bahia — São Paulo · Serie A0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: São Paulo favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Bahia in 6 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

São Paulo14 matchesBahia13 matches
1.36 goals/matchGoals scored14/13▲ 1.46 goals/match
0.93 goals/match ▲Goals allowed14/131.23 goals/match
1.2 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲ 1.43 xG/match
12.1 shots/matchShots14/13▲ 13.5 shots/match
3.93 shots/matchShots on target14/13▲ 5.54 shots/match
53.2%Possession14/13● 53.2%
6.86 corners/match ●Corners14/135.38 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards4/34 cards/match
15.1 fouls/matchFouls14/1314.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples14 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 4 May 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSão PauloBahia
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headSão Paulo — Bahia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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