PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Ligga Arena

Athletico 1–1 Flamengo · Serie A

1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Athletico and Flamengo drew 1–1.

Shots
1812
Shots on target
53
Expected goals
1.171.08
Possession
36%64%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Atletico Paranaense – Flamengo): shots 18–12, shots on target 5–3, expected goals 1.17–1.08, possession 36%–64%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Atletico Paranaense's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atletico Paranaense's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.31 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.31 goals/match1.31 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots12 shotsAthletico 18 shots, Flamengo 12 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots3 shotsAthletico 5 shots, Flamengo 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.17 xG1.08 xGAthletico 1.17 xG, Flamengo 1.08 xG
  • Possession36%64%Athletico 36%, Flamengo 64%
  • Corners9 corners7 cornersAthletico 9 corners, Flamengo 7 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls12 foulsAthletico 9 fouls, Flamengo 12 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Athletico
1Draws
2Flamengo
Flamengo — Athletico · Serie A1–0
Athletico — Flamengo · Serie A1–1
Flamengo — Athletico · Serie A0–3
Athletico — Flamengo · Serie A2–1
Flamengo — Athletico · Serie A5–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Athletico favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Flamengo in 7 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Athletico16 matchesFlamengo15 matches
1.31 goals/matchGoals scored16/15▲ 1.87 goals/match
1.06 goals/matchGoals allowed16/15▲ 0.87 goals/match
1.14 xG/matchExpected goals12/12▲ 1.52 xG/match
11.9 shots/matchShots16/15▲ 14 shots/match
4.75 shots/matchShots on target16/154.8 shots/match
47.9%Possession16/15● 54.7%
4.81 corners/match ●Corners16/154.2 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/32.67 cards/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls16/1513 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples16 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 18 May 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAthleticoFlamengo
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headAthletico — Flamengo
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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