PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Vasco da Gama 1–0 Athletico · Serie A

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Vasco da Gama won 1–0.

Shots
169
Shots on target
63
Expected goals
2.221.13
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

Vasco DA Gama beat Atletico Paranaense 1–0. Recorded in this match (Vasco DA Gama – Atletico Paranaense): shots 16–9, shots on target 6–3, expected goals 2.22–1.13, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Atletico Paranaense's recent record differs from the season

weak

Atletico Paranaense's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.33 goals/match1.31 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots9 shotsVasco da Gama 16 shots, Athletico 9 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots3 shotsVasco da Gama 6 shots, Athletico 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.22 xG1.13 xGVasco da Gama 2.22 xG, Athletico 1.13 xG
  • Possession53%47%Vasco da Gama 53%, Athletico 47%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersVasco da Gama 4 corners, Athletico 3 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls9 foulsVasco da Gama 6 fouls, Athletico 9 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Vasco da Gama
1Draws
2Athletico
Vasco da Gama — Athletico · Serie A2–1
Athletico — Vasco da Gama · Serie A1–0
Athletico — Vasco da Gama · Serie A0–0
Vasco da Gama — Athletico · Serie A0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Vasco da Gama favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Athletico in 5 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Vasco da Gama15 matchesAthletico15 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored15/151.33 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲ 1.07 goals/match
1.42 xG/match ▲Expected goals11/111.14 xG/match
17.7 shots/match ▲Shots15/1511.5 shots/match
5.47 shots/match ▲Shots on target15/154.73 shots/match
53.5% ●Possession15/1548.7%
5.53 corners/match ●Corners15/154.53 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/41.75 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls15/1514.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 11 May 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVasco da GamaAthletico
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headVasco da Gama — Athletico
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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