PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Arena Barueri

Palmeiras 2–1 Fluminense · Serie A

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Palmeiras won 2–1.

Shots
1318
Shots on target
67
Possession
35%65%

Full time

What the match recorded

Palmeiras beat Fluminense 2–1. Recorded in this match (Palmeiras – Fluminense): shots 13–18, shots on target 6–7, possession 35%–65%, corners 5–11. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fluminense show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Fluminense's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.8 shots/match ▲ShotsPalmeiras · Fluminense12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricPalmeirasFluminenseBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against17 shots/match12.3 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Fluminense have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.3%PossessionPalmeiras · Fluminense● 56%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricPalmeirasFluminenseBaseline
Possession45.3%56%50.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots18 shotsPalmeiras 13 shots, Fluminense 18 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots7 shotsPalmeiras 6 shots, Fluminense 7 shots
  • Possession35%65%Palmeiras 35%, Fluminense 65%
  • Corners5 corners11 cornersPalmeiras 5 corners, Fluminense 11 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls16 foulsPalmeiras 16 fouls, Fluminense 16 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards4 cardsPalmeiras 3 cards, Fluminense 4 cards
  • Passes311 passes577 passesPalmeiras 311 passes, Fluminense 577 passes
  • Pass accuracy83%90%Palmeiras 83%, Fluminense 90%
  • Shots inside box9 shots10 shotsPalmeiras 9 shots, Fluminense 10 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks6 blocksPalmeiras 4 blocks, Fluminense 6 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves6 saves5 savesPalmeiras 6 saves, Fluminense 5 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides2 offsidesPalmeiras 3 offsides, Fluminense 2 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Palmeiras
1Draws
2Fluminense
Palmeiras — Fluminense · Serie A0–0
Fluminense — Palmeiras · Serie A1–2
Palmeiras — Fluminense · Serie A0–1
Fluminense — Palmeiras · Serie A1–0
Palmeiras — Fluminense · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Palmeiras favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Fluminense in 0 · 11 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Palmeiras4 matchesFluminense4 matches
3 goals/match ▲Goals scored4/41.25 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲ 1 goal/match
13.8 shots/match ▲Shots4/412.8 shots/match
7 shots/match ▲Shots on target4/45.5 shots/match
45.3%Possession4/4● 56%
5.5 corners/matchCorners4/45.5 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/43.5 cards/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls4/415 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 26 Feb 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingShots per match rankingShots on target per match ranking
TeamsPalmeirasFluminense
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headPalmeiras — Fluminense
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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