PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Arena do Grêmio

Grêmio 2–1 Atlético Mineiro · Serie A

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Grêmio won 2–1.

Shots
188
Shots on target
72
Possession
63%37%

Full time

What the match recorded

Gremio beat Atletico-MG 2–1. Recorded in this match (Gremio – Atletico-MG): shots 18–8, shots on target 7–2, possession 63%–37%, corners 6–3. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Gremio show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Gremio's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.3 shots/match ▲ShotsGremio · Atletico-MG13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricGremioAtletico-MGBaseline
Shots12.3 shots/match13 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against11.3 shots/match17.3 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots8 shotsGrêmio 18 shots, Atlético Mineiro 8 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots2 shotsGrêmio 7 shots, Atlético Mineiro 2 shots
  • Possession63%37%Grêmio 63%, Atlético Mineiro 37%
  • Corners6 corners3 cornersGrêmio 6 corners, Atlético Mineiro 3 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls5 foulsGrêmio 14 fouls, Atlético Mineiro 5 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards1 cardGrêmio 4 cards, Atlético Mineiro 1 card
  • Passes476 passes282 passesGrêmio 476 passes, Atlético Mineiro 282 passes
  • Pass accuracy88%74%Grêmio 88%, Atlético Mineiro 74%
  • Shots inside box6 shots2 shotsGrêmio 6 shots, Atlético Mineiro 2 shots
  • Blocked shots6 blocks4 blocksGrêmio 6 blocks, Atlético Mineiro 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save5 savesGrêmio 1 save, Atlético Mineiro 5 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides0 offsidesGrêmio 2 offsides, Atlético Mineiro 0 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Grêmio
0Draws
3Atlético Mineiro
Atlético Mineiro — Grêmio · Serie A1–3
Grêmio — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A2–1
Atlético Mineiro — Grêmio · Serie A2–1
Grêmio — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A2–3
Atlético Mineiro — Grêmio · Serie A3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Grêmio favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Atlético Mineiro in 0 · 11 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Grêmio4 matchesAtlético Mineiro4 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored4/41.5 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed4/42 goals/match
12.3 shots/matchShots4/4▲ 13 shots/match
4.75 shots/match ▲Shots on target4/43.5 shots/match
49.3%Possession4/4● 50%
4.75 corners/matchCorners4/4● 6.5 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards4/42 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls4/49.25 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 26 Feb 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingShots per match rankingShots on target per match ranking
TeamsGrêmioAtlético Mineiro
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headGrêmio — Atlético Mineiro
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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