Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 1 Aug 2026, 23:30 UTCScheduledSubaru ParkPre-match analysis

Philadelphia Union

LLDLW

vsPre-match analysis

Atlanta United FC

LDLLD

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Philadelphia Union's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Philadelphia Union's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Philadelphia Union's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.31 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.4 goals/match	1.31 goals/match	1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Philadelphia Union

0Draws

1Atlanta United FC

14 Mar 2026Atlanta United FC — Philadelphia Union · Major League Soccer3–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Philadelphia Union favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Atlanta United FC in 2 · 3 too close

1.31 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/161 goals/match

1.94 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/16▲1.63 goals/match

1.6 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 13/131.35 xG/match

1.65 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 13/13▲1.45 xG/match

15.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 16/1613 shots/match

9.38 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 16/1611.6 shots/match

4.56 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/164.19 shots/match

3.88 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 16/164.38 shots/match

45.4%Possessionseason · 16/1652.7%

5.88 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/164.88 corners/match

3.19 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/164.81 corners/match

3.5 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/42.5 cards/match

15.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1611.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

13%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/166%

69%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1656%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Philadelphia Union18.3

Atlanta United FC65

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Philadelphia Union46.1

Atlanta United FC25.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Philadelphia Union70

Atlanta United FC62.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Philadelphia Union98.3

Atlanta United FC38.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Philadelphia Union95

Atlanta United FC45.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Philadelphia Union86.7

Atlanta United FC55

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Philadelphia Union76.2

Atlanta United FC42.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match

2.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match

2.2 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.44 xG/match

18.6 shots/match▲Shots5/514.8 shots/match

6.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.2 shots/match

38.8%Possession5/550.2%

5.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.5 goals/match

1.64 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.33 xG/match

16.2 shots/match▲Shots10/1015.1 shots/match

5.3 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.7 shots/match

43.2%Possession10/1051%

5.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.7 corners/match

—Cards1/1—

14.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches

1.31 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161 goals/match

1.94 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲1.63 goals/match

1.6 xG/match▲Expected goals13/131.35 xG/match

15.4 shots/match▲Shots16/1613 shots/match

4.56 shots/match▲Shots on target16/164.19 shots/match

45.4%Possession16/1652.7%

5.88 corners/matchCorners16/164.88 corners/match

3.5 cards/matchCards4/42.5 cards/match

15.1 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 8 matches

0.86 goals/match▲Goals scored7/80.63 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/81.5 goals/match

1.54 xG/match▲Expected goals5/61.36 xG/match

15.6 shots/match▲Shots7/812.6 shots/match

4.57 shots/match▲Shots on target7/83.75 shots/match

46.7%Possession7/850.3%

7.29 corners/matchCorners7/85.25 corners/match

—Cards2/2—

13.4 fouls/matchFouls7/812.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

10 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19.97 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness10 daysfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Aug 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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What the record shows

Philadelphia Union's recent record differs from the season

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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