PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Thu, 23 Apr 2026, 02:30 UTCFull timePayPal ParkFull-time recap
5–1Full-time recap

Austin

LDDLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricSan Jose EarthquakesAustin
Shots37 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target16 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals5.27 xG/match▲0.63 xG/match
Possession69%31%
Corners13 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match21 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: San Jose Earthquakes's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: San Jose Earthquakes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

San Jose Earthquakes show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

San Jose Earthquakes's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.6 shots/match▲ShotsSan Jose Earthquakes · Austin10.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSan Jose EarthquakesAustinBaseline
Shots16.6 shots/match10.1 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against9 shots/match18.9 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

San Jose Earthquakes have a visible home split

moderate

San Jose Earthquakes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

22.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season16.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots22.8 shots/match16.6 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

San Jose Earthquakes's recent record differs from the season

moderate

San Jose Earthquakes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.44 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3.2 goals/match2.44 goals/match1.64 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

San Jose Earthquakes favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Austin in 0 · 4 too close

2.44 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 9/91.33 goals/match
0.44 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 9/92.11 goals/match
2.33 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 6/61 xG/match
0.71 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 6/62.57 xG/match
16.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 9/910.1 shots/match
9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 9/918.9 shots/match
6.44 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 9/93.89 shots/match
2.78 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 9/97.56 shots/match
49.9%Possessionseason · 9/946.8%
8 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/95 corners/match
3.78 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 9/97.56 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/32 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/911.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
56%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/922%
89%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/989%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

San Jose Earthquakes51.7
Austin31.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

San Jose Earthquakes95
Austin16.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

San Jose Earthquakes91.7
Austin9.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

San Jose Earthquakes91.7
Austin15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

San Jose Earthquakes34.1
Austin35.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 67%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

San Jose Earthquakes98.3
Austin56.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

San Jose Earthquakes82.9
Austin27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
3.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
2.47 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.08 xG/match
17.8 shots/match▲Shots5/59.6 shots/match
7.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
49.2%Possession5/548.4%
6.4 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
—Cards1/0—
12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches
2.44 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.33 goals/match
0.44 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/92.11 goals/match
2.33 xG/match▲Expected goals6/61 xG/match
16.6 shots/match▲Shots9/910.1 shots/match
6.44 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.89 shots/match
49.9%Possession9/946.8%
8 corners/matchCorners9/95 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/32 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls9/911.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches
2.44 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.33 goals/match
0.44 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/92.11 goals/match
2.33 xG/match▲Expected goals6/61 xG/match
16.6 shots/match▲Shots9/910.1 shots/match
6.44 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.89 shots/match
49.9%Possession9/946.8%
8 corners/matchCorners9/95 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/32 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls9/911.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/53 goals/match
3.42 xG/match▲Expected goals3/41.09 xG/match
22.8 shots/match▲Shots5/58.2 shots/match
8.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.8 shots/match
52.4%Possession5/537.2%
11.8 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards3/1—
12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.4 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 23 Apr 2026, 06:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsSan Jose EarthquakesAustin
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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