PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Rostec Arena

Baltika Kaliningrad 1–0 CSKA Moscow · Premier League

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Baltika Kaliningrad won 1–0.

Shots
1012
Shots on target
54
Possession
38%62%

Full time

What the match recorded

Baltika beat CSKA Moscow 1–0. Recorded in this match (Baltika – CSKA Moscow): shots 10–12, shots on target 5–4, possession 38%–62%, corners 5–6. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

CSKA Moscow's recent record differs from the season

moderate

CSKA Moscow's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.48 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.48 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Baltika show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Baltika's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.1 shots/match ▲ShotsBaltika · CSKA Moscow13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBaltikaCSKA MoscowBaseline
Shots12.1 shots/match13.8 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against11.2 shots/match14.6 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

CSKA Moscow have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.2%PossessionBaltika · CSKA Moscow● 56%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBaltikaCSKA MoscowBaseline
Possession45.2%56%48.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots12 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 10 shots, CSKA Moscow 12 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 5 shots, CSKA Moscow 4 shots
  • Possession38%62%Baltika Kaliningrad 38%, CSKA Moscow 62%
  • Corners5 corners6 cornersBaltika Kaliningrad 5 corners, CSKA Moscow 6 corners
  • Fouls23 fouls10 foulsBaltika Kaliningrad 23 fouls, CSKA Moscow 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards5 cards4 cardsBaltika Kaliningrad 5 cards, CSKA Moscow 4 cards
  • Passes267 passes444 passesBaltika Kaliningrad 267 passes, CSKA Moscow 444 passes
  • Pass accuracy57%78%Baltika Kaliningrad 57%, CSKA Moscow 78%
  • Shots inside box6 shots8 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 6 shots, CSKA Moscow 8 shots
  • Blocked shots1 block4 blocksBaltika Kaliningrad 1 block, CSKA Moscow 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves5 savesBaltika Kaliningrad 4 saves, CSKA Moscow 5 saves

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Baltika Kaliningrad
1Draws
3CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow — Baltika Kaliningrad · Premier League1–0
CSKA Moscow — Baltika Kaliningrad · Russian Cup1–1
Baltika Kaliningrad — CSKA Moscow · Russian Cup0–2
Baltika Kaliningrad — CSKA Moscow · Premier League3–1
CSKA Moscow — Baltika Kaliningrad · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Baltika Kaliningrad favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · CSKA Moscow in 5 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Baltika Kaliningrad21 matchesCSKA Moscow21 matches
1.24 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲ 1.48 goals/match
0.43 goals/match ▲Goals allowed21/211.1 goals/match
12.1 shots/matchShots21/21▲ 13.8 shots/match
4.1 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲ 4.62 shots/match
45.2%Possession21/21● 56%
3.43 corners/matchCorners21/21● 5.29 corners/match
3.25 cards/matchCards20/202.15 cards/match
19.4 fouls/matchFouls21/2111.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Mar 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingShots per match rankingShots on target per match ranking
TeamsBaltika KaliningradCSKA Moscow
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2025/26
Head-to-headBaltika Kaliningrad — CSKA Moscow
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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