PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 23 May 2026, 19:00 UTCFull time

Espanyol

1–1Full-time recap

Real Sociedad

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Real Sociedad's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Real Sociedad. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples38 / 38home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Real Sociedad's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Real Sociedad's last-five shots average is below their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots8.6 shots/match12.3 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Real Sociedad.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Rest days6.08 days6.08 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Real Sociedad have recorded the higher season possession share.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Possession42.3%51.2%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Espanyol7.5
Real Sociedad72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Espanyol50
Real Sociedad68.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Espanyol30.8
Real Sociedad23.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Espanyol97.5
Real Sociedad37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Espanyol57.5
Real Sociedad55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 87%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Espanyol52.5
Real Sociedad72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Espanyol62.5
Real Sociedad71.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricEspanyolReal Sociedad
Goals scored1.2 goals/match5 obs.1.4 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed1.2 goals/match5 obs.1.8 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.08 xG/match5 obs.1.06 xG/match5 obs.
Shots12.4 shots/match5 obs.8.6 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target4.8 shots/match5 obs.3 shots/match5 obs.
Possession42.8%5 obs.53.6%5 obs.
Corners4.8 corners/match5 obs.3.6 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—0 obs.—2 obs.
Fouls13.8 fouls/match5 obs.14.2 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricEspanyolReal Sociedad
Goals scored0.8 goals/match10 obs.1.6 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1.3 goals/match10 obs.1.9 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1.11 xG/match10 obs.1.34 xG/match10 obs.
Shots11.9 shots/match10 obs.10.9 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target3.9 shots/match10 obs.4 shots/match10 obs.
Possession43%10 obs.55.4%10 obs.
Corners5.3 corners/match10 obs.5.2 corners/match10 obs.
Cards—1 obs.3 cards/match4 obs.
Fouls14.1 fouls/match10 obs.12.6 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

38 / 38 matches
MetricEspanyolReal Sociedad
Goals scored1.13 goals/match38 obs.1.55 goals/match38 obs.
Goals allowed1.45 goals/match38 obs.1.61 goals/match38 obs.
Expected goals1.18 xG/match12 obs.1.4 xG/match11 obs.
Shots12.6 shots/match38 obs.12.3 shots/match38 obs.
Shots on target4.16 shots/match38 obs.4.61 shots/match38 obs.
Possession42.3%38 obs.51.2%38 obs.
Corners4.68 corners/match38 obs.5.53 corners/match38 obs.
Cards2.39 cards/match28 obs.2.23 cards/match31 obs.
Fouls13.6 fouls/match38 obs.14.1 fouls/match38 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

19 / 19 matches
MetricEspanyolReal Sociedad
Goals scored1.11 goals/match19 obs.1.16 goals/match19 obs.
Goals allowed1.26 goals/match19 obs.1.58 goals/match19 obs.
Expected goals1.32 xG/match6 obs.0.94 xG/match5 obs.
Shots13.4 shots/match19 obs.11.7 shots/match19 obs.
Shots on target4.84 shots/match19 obs.4.26 shots/match19 obs.
Possession46.3%19 obs.50.3%19 obs.
Corners5.16 corners/match19 obs.5.16 corners/match19 obs.
Cards2.5 cards/match14 obs.2.33 cards/match15 obs.
Fouls13.2 fouls/match19 obs.14.4 fouls/match19 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.13 goals/match25th1.55 goals/match75th1.22 goals/match38 / 38
Goals allowedseason1.45 goals/match53th1.61 goals/match95th1.45 goals/match38 / 38
Expected goalsseason1.18 xG/match38th1.4 xG/match73th1.25 xG/match12 / 11
Expected goals allowedseason1.49 xG/match83th1.53 xG/match88th1.23 xG/match12 / 11
Shotsseason12.6 shots/match68th12.3 shots/match58th12 shots/match38 / 38
Shots allowedseason13.6 shots/match68th13.9 shots/match78th12.5 shots/match38 / 38
Shots on targetseason4.16 shots/match58th4.61 shots/match73th4.12 shots/match38 / 38
Shots on target allowedseason5.13 shots/match88th4.42 shots/match58th4.22 shots/match38 / 38
Possessionseason42.3%8th51.2%73th49.4%38 / 38
Cornersseason4.68 corners/match53th5.53 corners/match73th4.58 corners/match38 / 38
Corners allowedseason4.84 corners/match63th4.5 corners/match28th4.77 corners/match38 / 38
Cardsseason2.39 cards/match43th2.23 cards/match28th2.43 cards/match28 / 31
Foulsseason13.6 fouls/match73th14.1 fouls/match83th12.4 fouls/match38 / 38
Clean-sheet frequencyseason26%65th8%3th24%38 / 38
Scoring frequencyseason76%53th87%80th76%38 / 38

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures6.08 days—6.08 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures2 matches—3 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsEspanyolReal Sociedad
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 23 May 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v3