Alaves
La Liga · 2025This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.
This match
Match statistics
| Metric | Alaves | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 19 shots/match▲ | 15 shots/match |
| Shots on target | 11 shots/match▲ | 7 shots/match |
| Expected goals | 1.73 xG/match▲ | 1.39 xG/match |
| Possession | 49% | 51% |
| Corners | 10 corners/match | 5 corners/match |
| Fouls | 13 fouls/match | 14 fouls/match |
| Yellow cards | 3 cards/match | 3 cards/match |
30-second read
What the record shows
The clearest recorded pattern is: Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Rayo Vallecano's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.
Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season
moderateRayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.
Window: last_5 versus season
| Metric | Last 5 | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1.6 goals/match | 1.08 goals/match | 1.22 goals/match |
Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.
Rayo Vallecano have a visible away split
moderateRayo Vallecano's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.
Window: away
| Metric | Away only | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 11.3 shots/match | 13.9 shots/match | 12 shots/match |
Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.
Recent scheduling adds useful context
weakA compressed recent schedule is recorded for Rayo Vallecano.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.
Window: previous 14 days
| Metric | Alaves | Rayo Vallecano | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest days | 6.08 days | 6.08 days | — |
| Matches last 14 days | 2 matches | 3 matches | — |
Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.
History
Head-to-head
Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.
Metric comparison
Values, percentiles and samples
Alaves favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 5 · 4 too close
Style profile
How the teams compare
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
Recent form
Season, last 10 and last 5
Window
Last 5
Window
Last 10
Window
Season
Venue split
Home and away samples
Window
Home team at home / away team away
Schedule context
Rest and recent workload
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
- Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
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