PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 23 May 2026, 19:00 UTCFull time

Celta Vigo

1–0Full-time recap

Sevilla

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sevilla's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Celta Vigo's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples38 / 38home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Sevilla's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sevilla's last-five shots average is above their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots15.2 shots/match11.5 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Celta Vigo show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Celta Vigo's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots10.1 shots/match11.5 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against12.6 shots/match10.6 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Celta Vigo57.5
Sevilla67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Celta Vigo40
Sevilla31.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Celta Vigo53.3
Sevilla54.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Celta Vigo7.5
Sevilla22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo17.5
Sevilla92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 86%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo17.5
Sevilla57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Celta Vigo24.4
Sevilla48.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricCelta VigoSevilla
Goals scored1.6 goals/match5 obs.1.2 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed1 goals/match5 obs.1 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals0.95 xG/match5 obs.1.06 xG/match5 obs.
Shots7.2 shots/match5 obs.15.2 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target3.2 shots/match5 obs.4.8 shots/match5 obs.
Possession46%5 obs.46.2%5 obs.
Corners2.4 corners/match5 obs.3.6 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—0 obs.—0 obs.
Fouls11.2 fouls/match5 obs.16 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricCelta VigoSevilla
Goals scored1.5 goals/match10 obs.0.9 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1.7 goals/match10 obs.1.3 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1.2 xG/match10 obs.0.88 xG/match10 obs.
Shots8.1 shots/match10 obs.12.4 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target3.8 shots/match10 obs.3 shots/match10 obs.
Possession50.4%10 obs.44.8%10 obs.
Corners2.8 corners/match10 obs.4.4 corners/match10 obs.
Cards—0 obs.—1 obs.
Fouls12.4 fouls/match10 obs.14.1 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

38 / 38 matches
MetricCelta VigoSevilla
Goals scored1.39 goals/match38 obs.1.21 goals/match38 obs.
Goals allowed1.26 goals/match38 obs.1.58 goals/match38 obs.
Expected goals1.14 xG/match11 obs.0.87 xG/match11 obs.
Shots10.1 shots/match38 obs.11.5 shots/match38 obs.
Shots on target4.03 shots/match38 obs.3.61 shots/match38 obs.
Possession50.4%38 obs.50.9%38 obs.
Corners3.79 corners/match38 obs.4.79 corners/match38 obs.
Cards1.89 cards/match27 obs.3.04 cards/match28 obs.
Fouls11.7 fouls/match38 obs.14.8 fouls/match38 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

19 / 19 matches
MetricCelta VigoSevilla
Goals scored1.53 goals/match19 obs.1.16 goals/match19 obs.
Goals allowed1.47 goals/match19 obs.1.84 goals/match19 obs.
Expected goals1.44 xG/match5 obs.0.64 xG/match6 obs.
Shots11.5 shots/match19 obs.11 shots/match19 obs.
Shots on target4.37 shots/match19 obs.3.26 shots/match19 obs.
Possession52.6%19 obs.50.1%19 obs.
Corners4.53 corners/match19 obs.5 corners/match19 obs.
Cards1.79 cards/match14 obs.2.93 cards/match14 obs.
Fouls10.2 fouls/match19 obs.14.1 fouls/match19 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.39 goals/match68th1.21 goals/match45th1.22 goals/match38 / 38
Goals allowedseason1.26 goals/match35th1.58 goals/match85th1.45 goals/match38 / 38
Expected goalsseason1.14 xG/match33th0.87 xG/match3th1.25 xG/match11 / 11
Expected goals allowedseason1.54 xG/match93th1.26 xG/match63th1.23 xG/match11 / 11
Shotsseason10.1 shots/match13th11.5 shots/match33th12 shots/match38 / 38
Shots allowedseason12.6 shots/match58th10.6 shots/match13th12.5 shots/match38 / 38
Shots on targetseason4.03 shots/match40th3.61 shots/match18th4.12 shots/match38 / 38
Shots on target allowedseason4.21 shots/match48th4.18 shots/match40th4.22 shots/match38 / 38
Possessionseason50.4%58th50.9%68th49.4%38 / 38
Cornersseason3.79 corners/match18th4.79 corners/match58th4.58 corners/match38 / 38
Corners allowedseason4.58 corners/match38th4.55 corners/match33th4.77 corners/match38 / 38
Cardsseason1.89 cards/match8th3.04 cards/match98th2.43 cards/match27 / 28
Foulsseason11.7 fouls/match28th14.8 fouls/match88th12.4 fouls/match38 / 38
Clean-sheet frequencyseason26%65th16%20th24%38 / 38
Scoring frequencyseason84%68th74%38th76%38 / 38

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures6.08 days—6.08 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures2 matches—2 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsCelta VigoSevilla
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 23 May 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v3