La Liga · 2025Sun, 12 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTCFull timeSan MamésFull-time recap

Athletic Club

DLLWL

1–2Full-time recap

Villarreal

LWDWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Athletic Club	Villarreal
Shots	18 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match	6 shots/match
Expected goals	1.21 xG/match▲	1.1 xG/match
Possession	61%	39%
Corners	15 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	15 fouls/match	8 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match▲	3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Athletic Club's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Villarreal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Athletic Club's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Athletic Club's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.06 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	1.06 goals/match	1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Villarreal have a visible away split

moderate

Villarreal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.63 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.63 shots/match	12.2 shots/match	11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Athletic Club

0Draws

1Villarreal

27 Sept 2025Villarreal — Athletic Club · La Liga1–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Athletic Club favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Villarreal in 5 · 6 too close

1.06 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 31/31▲1.81 goals/match

1.45 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 31/31▲1.16 goals/match

1.15 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/41.45 xG/match

1.26 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/40.77 xG/match

14 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 31/3112.2 shots/match

9.71 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 31/3112.7 shots/match

4.58 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 31/314.55 shots/match

4.26 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 31/31▲3.65 shots/match

49.7%Possessionseason · 31/3143.5%

5.65 corners/matchCornersseason · 31/313.9 corners/match

3.87 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 31/314.9 corners/match

2.48 cards/matchCardsseason · 27/272.44 cards/match

13.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/3112.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

16%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/31▲26%

65%Scoring frequencyseason · 31/31▲84%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Athletic Club47.5

Villarreal17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Athletic Club58.3

Villarreal70.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Athletic Club62.5

Villarreal66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Athletic Club77.5

Villarreal72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Athletic Club70

Villarreal50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 94%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Athletic Club72.5

Villarreal27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Athletic Club76.2

Villarreal48.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match

1.15 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.45 xG/match

12.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.6 shots/match

4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.4 shots/match

50.2%Possession5/541.8%

7 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match

—Cards1/1—

12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match

1.15 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.45 xG/match

14.3 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.9 shots/match

4.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.4 shots/match

50.3%Possession10/1042.4%

5.6 corners/matchCorners10/103.5 corners/match

2.83 cards/matchCards6/62.33 cards/match

14.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1012 fouls/match

Window

Season

31 / 31 matches

1.06 goals/matchGoals scored31/31▲1.81 goals/match

1.45 goals/matchGoals allowed31/31▲1.16 goals/match

1.15 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.45 xG/match

14 shots/match▲Shots31/3112.2 shots/match

4.58 shots/matchShots on target31/314.55 shots/match

49.7%Possession31/3143.5%

5.65 corners/matchCorners31/313.9 corners/match

2.48 cards/matchCards27/272.44 cards/match

13.7 fouls/matchFouls31/3112.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 16 matches

1.25 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.38 goals/match

1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.44 goals/match

—Expected goals2/30.76 xG/match

14.9 shots/match▲Shots16/169.63 shots/match

4.94 shots/match▲Shots on target16/163.38 shots/match

50.2%Possession16/1640.1%

6.06 corners/matchCorners16/162.75 corners/match

2.14 cards/matchCards14/133.31 cards/match

13.6 fouls/matchFouls16/1612.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.29 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples31 / 31home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 12 Apr 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Athletic Club's recent record differs from the season

Villarreal have a visible away split

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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