PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 4 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTCFull timeMetropolitano StadiumFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtletico MadridBarcelona
Shots6 shots/match22 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.92 xG/match2.22 xG/match▲
Possession33%67%
Corners1 corners/match9 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards6 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Barcelona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.5 corners/match▲CornersAtletico Madrid · Barcelona7.27 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricAtletico MadridBarcelonaBaseline
Corners6.5 corners/match7.27 corners/match4.6 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Barcelona show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Barcelona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.4 shots/match▲ShotsAtletico Madrid · Barcelona19.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtletico MadridBarcelonaBaseline
Shots13.4 shots/match19.7 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against10.9 shots/match9.17 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Barcelona's recent record differs from the season

weak

Barcelona's last-five shots average is below their season average.

15.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season19.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots15.2 shots/match19.7 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Atletico Madrid
0Draws
2Barcelona
Barcelona — Atletico Madrid · Copa del Rey3–0
Atletico Madrid — Barcelona · Copa del Rey4–0
Barcelona — Atletico Madrid · La Liga3–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atletico Madrid favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Barcelona in 6 · 6 too close

1.67 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 30/30▲2.67 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 30/300.97 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/32.31 xG/match
1.95 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/31.19 xG/match
13.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 30/30▲19.7 shots/match
10.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 30/30▲9.17 shots/match
5.4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 30/30▲7.2 shots/match
3.5 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 30/303.7 shots/match
54.4%Possessionseason · 30/3068.6%
6.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 30/307.27 corners/match
3.93 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 30/304.2 corners/match
2.13 cards/matchCardsseason · 30/28▲1.71 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/309.27 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
40%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/3040%
87%Scoring frequencyseason · 30/30▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atletico Madrid82.5
Barcelona97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atletico Madrid80.8
Barcelona97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atletico Madrid85.8
Barcelona90.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atletico Madrid47.5
Barcelona77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atletico Madrid25
Barcelona2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atletico Madrid92.5
Barcelona97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atletico Madrid68.8
Barcelona73.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.6 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲2.31 xG/match
14 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.2 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6 shots/match
52%Possession5/566.6%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match
3.4 cards/matchCards5/32 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.6 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.7 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲2.31 xG/match
13.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲19.4 shots/match
5.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.5 shots/match
56.1%Possession10/1068.7%
6 corners/matchCorners10/107.5 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards10/81.63 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls10/109 fouls/match

Window

Season

30 / 30 matches
1.67 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲2.67 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed30/300.97 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲2.31 xG/match
13.4 shots/matchShots30/30▲19.7 shots/match
5.4 shots/matchShots on target30/30▲7.2 shots/match
54.4%Possession30/3068.6%
6.5 corners/matchCorners30/307.27 corners/match
2.13 cards/matchCards30/281.71 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls30/309.27 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 15 matches
2.19 goals/matchGoals scored16/152.2 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/151.4 goals/match
—Expected goals2/1—
15.6 shots/matchShots16/15▲19.9 shots/match
6.69 shots/matchShots on target16/156.93 shots/match
55.4%Possession16/1568.7%
7.88 corners/matchCorners16/157 corners/match
2.13 cards/matchCards16/152.33 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls16/159.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.3 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Apr 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtletico MadridBarcelona
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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