La Liga · 2025Sat, 4 Apr 2026, 14:15 UTCFull timeEstadi Mallorca Son MoixFull-time recap
21Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMallorcaReal Madrid
Shots6 shots/match15 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match6 shots/match
Expected goals1.22 xG/match1.27 xG/match
Possession36%64%
Corners6 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Mallorca's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.3 shots/matchShotsMallorca · Real Madrid18 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMallorcaReal MadridBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match18 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against15 shots/match10 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Mallorca's recent record differs from the season

weak

Mallorca's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/matchGoals forLast 5 · Season1.2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.2 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Real Madrid have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.9%PossessionMallorca · Real Madrid59.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMallorcaReal MadridBaseline
Possession44.9%59.3%50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Mallorca
0Draws
1Real Madrid
Real MadridMallorca · La Liga21

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Mallorca favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 10 · 4 too close

1.2 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 30/302.13 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 30/300.93 goals/match
1.57 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/31.59 xG/match
1.38 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/30.89 xG/match
10.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 30/3018 shots/match
15 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 30/3010 shots/match
3.97 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 30/306.87 shots/match
4.9 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 30/303.03 shots/match
44.9%Possessionseason · 30/3059.3%
3.4 corners/matchCornersseason · 30/306.33 corners/match
6.6 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 30/303.5 corners/match
2.43 cards/matchCardsseason · 28/282.11 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/309.97 fouls/match
Passesseason · 0/0
Pass accuracyseason · 0/0
Shots inside boxseason · 0/0
Blocked shotsseason · 0/0
Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0
Offsidesseason · 0/0
10%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/3037%
73%Scoring frequencyseason · 30/3090%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Mallorca27.5
Real Madrid92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Mallorca35
Real Madrid92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Mallorca19.2
Real Madrid94.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Mallorca27.5
Real Madrid97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Mallorca41.2
Real Madrid15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Mallorca2.5
Real Madrid87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Mallorca22.5
Real Madrid70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/52 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
1.57 xG/matchExpected goals3/31.59 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots5/515.6 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/56.4 shots/match
50.2%Possession5/560.8%
3.2 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards3/33 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/102.1 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.1 goals/match
1.57 xG/matchExpected goals3/31.59 xG/match
9.8 shots/matchShots10/1014.5 shots/match
3.7 shots/matchShots on target10/105.8 shots/match
45.5%Possession10/1059.2%
3.5 corners/matchCorners10/106.3 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards8/82.25 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls10/109.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

30 / 30 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored30/302.13 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed30/300.93 goals/match
1.57 xG/matchExpected goals3/31.59 xG/match
10.3 shots/matchShots30/3018 shots/match
3.97 shots/matchShots on target30/306.87 shots/match
44.9%Possession30/3059.3%
3.4 corners/matchCorners30/306.33 corners/match
2.43 cards/matchCards28/282.11 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls30/309.97 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches
1.53 goals/matchGoals scored15/151.87 goals/match
1.27 goals/matchGoals allowed15/151.07 goals/match
Expected goals2/1
11.5 shots/matchShots15/1517.1 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target15/156.13 shots/match
46.9%Possession15/1558.9%
3.53 corners/matchCorners15/156.13 corners/match
2.21 cards/matchCards14/141.5 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls15/1510.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/112.8 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Apr 2026, 18:15 UTC · analysis-v4

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