La Liga · 2025Fri, 20 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeEstadio de la CeramicaFull-time recap

Villarreal

WWLWD

3–1Full-time recap

Real Sociedad

LDWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Villarreal	Real Sociedad
Shots	21 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	10 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	3.51 xG/match▲	1.18 xG/match
Possession	35%	65%
Corners	4 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	11 fouls/match
Yellow cards	0 cards/match▲	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Real Sociedad's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Villarreal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Real Sociedad's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Real Sociedad's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.52 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.52 goals/match	1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Villarreal have a visible home split

moderate

Villarreal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	14.9 shots/match	12.3 shots/match	11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Villarreal

0Draws

0Real Sociedad

30 Nov 2025Real Sociedad — Villarreal · La Liga2–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Villarreal favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Real Sociedad in 1 · 8 too close

1.86 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 29/291.52 goals/match

1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 29/291.55 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 2/2—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/2—

12.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 29/2912.8 shots/match

12.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 29/2913.3 shots/match

4.66 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 29/294.79 shots/match

3.62 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 29/294.31 shots/match

43.6%Possessionseason · 29/2950.3%

3.93 corners/matchCornersseason · 29/295.62 corners/match

4.48 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 29/294.66 corners/match

2.44 cards/matchCardsseason · 27/27▲2.11 cards/match

12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2914.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

28%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/297%

86%Scoring frequencyseason · 29/2990%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Villarreal17.5

Real Sociedad57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Villarreal72.5

Real Sociedad70.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Villarreal69.2

Real Sociedad34.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Villarreal72.5

Real Sociedad62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Villarreal52.5

Real Sociedad55

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Villarreal27.5

Real Sociedad77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Villarreal51.2

Real Sociedad75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match

1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

13 shots/match▲Shots5/512 shots/match

5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.6 shots/match

38.6%Possession5/556%

3.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match

1.33 cards/matchCards3/31.67 cards/match

9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/514.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

11.1 shots/matchShots10/1010.9 shots/match

4.3 shots/matchShots on target10/104.5 shots/match

43.4%Possession10/1047.1%

3.6 corners/matchCorners10/104.2 corners/match

2.38 cards/matchCards8/81.88 cards/match

12.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

29 / 29 matches

1.86 goals/match▲Goals scored29/291.52 goals/match

1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed29/291.55 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

12.3 shots/matchShots29/2912.8 shots/match

4.66 shots/matchShots on target29/294.79 shots/match

43.6%Possession29/2950.3%

3.93 corners/matchCorners29/295.62 corners/match

2.44 cards/matchCards27/272.11 cards/match

12.5 fouls/matchFouls29/2914.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches

2.27 goals/match▲Goals scored15/151.13 goals/match

0.87 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.6 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

14.9 shots/match▲Shots15/1512.6 shots/match

5.8 shots/match▲Shots on target15/154.47 shots/match

47.1%Possession15/1551%

5.13 corners/matchCorners15/155.53 corners/match

1.64 cards/matchCards14/142.21 cards/match

12.1 fouls/matchFouls15/1514.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples29 / 29home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4