La Liga · 2025Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 15:15 UTCFull timeEstadio Abanca BalaídosFull-time recap

Celta Vigo

DWWLD

3–4Full-time recap

Alaves

DDLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Celta Vigo	Alaves
Shots	12 shots/match	14 shots/match▲
Shots on target	5 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.82 xG/match▲	1.73 xG/match
Possession	56%	44%
Corners	4 corners/match	1 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	16 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Alaves's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Alaves's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Alaves's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.03 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.03 goals/match	1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Celta Vigo

0Draws

0Alaves

22 Nov 2025Alaves — Celta Vigo · La Liga0–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Celta Vigo favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Alaves in 1 · 5 too close

1.41 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 29/291.03 goals/match

1.21 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 29/291.41 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 2/2—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/2—

10.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 29/29▲11.9 shots/match

12 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 29/2912.8 shots/match

4.14 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 29/293.9 shots/match

4.1 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 29/294.1 shots/match

50.6%Possessionseason · 29/2950.2%

4.14 corners/matchCornersseason · 29/294.83 corners/match

4.52 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 29/294.79 corners/match

1.89 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 27/272.63 cards/match

11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2915.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

28%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/2910%

86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 29/2966%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Celta Vigo67.5

Alaves57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Celta Vigo47.5

Alaves34.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Celta Vigo66.7

Alaves52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Celta Vigo17.5

Alaves37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo20

Alaves88.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo37.5

Alaves62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Celta Vigo36.2

Alaves61.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.8 goals/match

1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

10.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.2 shots/match

4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/54.6 shots/match

48.2%Possession5/545.4%

4.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match

1.33 cards/matchCards3/35.67 cards/match

10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/517.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.4 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

11.8 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.7 shots/match

4.5 shots/matchShots on target10/104.5 shots/match

53%Possession10/1050.2%

4.8 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match

1.63 cards/matchCards8/82.75 cards/match

10.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1015.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

29 / 29 matches

1.41 goals/match▲Goals scored29/291.03 goals/match

1.21 goals/match▲Goals allowed29/291.41 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

10.8 shots/matchShots29/29▲11.9 shots/match

4.14 shots/match▲Shots on target29/293.9 shots/match

50.6%Possession29/2950.2%

4.14 corners/matchCorners29/294.83 corners/match

1.89 cards/matchCards27/272.63 cards/match

11.4 fouls/matchFouls29/2915.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches

1.53 goals/match▲Goals scored15/150.87 goals/match

1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.67 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

12 shots/match▲Shots15/1511.1 shots/match

4.27 shots/match▲Shots on target15/153.73 shots/match

52.5%Possession15/1549.7%

4.67 corners/matchCorners15/153.93 corners/match

1.79 cards/matchCards14/143.07 cards/match

10.2 fouls/matchFouls15/1515.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.8 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples29 / 29home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4