PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Camp Nou

Barcelona 1–0 Rayo Vallecano · La Liga

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Barcelona won 1–0.

Shots
158
Shots on target
44
Expected goals
1.361.83
Possession
61%39%

Full time

What the match recorded

Barcelona beat Rayo Vallecano 1–0. Recorded in this match (Barcelona – Rayo Vallecano): shots 15–8, shots on target 4–4, expected goals 1.36–1.83, possession 61%–39%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Barcelona show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Barcelona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19.7 shots/match ▲ShotsBarcelona · Rayo Vallecano13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBarcelonaRayo VallecanoBaseline
Shots19.7 shots/match13.3 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against9.28 shots/match12.1 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

7.21 corners/match ●CornersBarcelona · Rayo Vallecano5.9 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricBarcelonaRayo VallecanoBaseline
Corners7.21 corners/match5.9 corners/match4.63 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

weak

Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.97 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.97 goals/match1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots8 shotsBarcelona 15 shots, Rayo Vallecano 8 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shotsBarcelona 4 shots, Rayo Vallecano 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.36 xG1.83 xGBarcelona 1.36 xG, Rayo Vallecano 1.83 xG
  • Possession61%39%Barcelona 61%, Rayo Vallecano 39%
  • Corners6 corners9 cornersBarcelona 6 corners, Rayo Vallecano 9 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls11 foulsBarcelona 12 fouls, Rayo Vallecano 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards4 cardsBarcelona 3 cards, Rayo Vallecano 4 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Lamine Yamal · Barcelona · 19′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJoão Cancelo · Barcelona · 34′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJoão Cancelo · Barcelona · 68′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPacha · Rayo Vallecano · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGerard Martín · Barcelona · 10′ · 0.02 xG · on targetÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 61′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDani Olmo · Barcelona · 68′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGerard Martín · Barcelona · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRaphinha · Barcelona · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFerran Torres · Barcelona · 58′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 89′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLamine Yamal · Barcelona · 57′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRaphinha · Barcelona · 30′ · 0.08 xG · on targetFermín López · Barcelona · 60′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRaphinha · Barcelona · 52′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedUnai López · Rayo Vallecano · 62′ · 0.12 xG · on targetRaphinha · Barcelona · 23′ · 0.19 xG · on targetÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 86′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedRonald Araújo · Barcelona · 24′ · 0.20 xG · goalPathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano · 43′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedPacha · Rayo Vallecano · 83′ · 0.47 xG · off target or blockedRaphinha · Barcelona · 13′ · 0.52 xG · off target or blockedCarlos Martín · Rayo Vallecano · 1′ · 0.64 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Barcelona: 15 shots, 4 on target, 1.40 xG. Rayo Vallecano: 8 shots, 4 on target, 1.80 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Ronald Araújo · Barcelona · 24′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Barcelona 1.40 xG · Rayo Vallecano 1.80 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Barcelona
2Draws
0Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano — Barcelona · La Liga1–1
Barcelona — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga1–0
Rayo Vallecano — Barcelona · La Liga1–2
Barcelona — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga3–0
Rayo Vallecano — Barcelona · La Liga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Barcelona favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Barcelona29 matchesRayo Vallecano29 matches
2.69 goals/match ▲Goals scored29/290.97 goals/match
0.97 goals/match ▲Goals allowed29/291.21 goals/match
2.48 xG/match ▲Expected goals29/291.31 xG/match
19.7 shots/match ▲Shots29/2913.3 shots/match
7.17 shots/match ▲Shots on target29/294.55 shots/match
68.7% ●Possession29/2953.4%
7.21 corners/match ●Corners29/295.9 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards27/283 cards/match
9.21 fouls/matchFouls29/2913.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBarcelonaRayo Vallecano
CompetitionLa LigaLa Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headBarcelona — Rayo Vallecano
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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