PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeEstadio Nuevo Carlos TartiereFull-time recap

Oviedo

LLWLD
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricOviedoAtletico Madrid
Shots16 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession38%62%
Corners8 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match6 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Oviedo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Atletico Madrid's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Oviedo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Oviedo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.64 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match0.64 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atletico Madrid have a visible away split

moderate

Atletico Madrid's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.7 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.7 shots/match13.2 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Atletico Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Atletico Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10 shots/match▲ShotsOviedo · Atletico Madrid13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricOviedoAtletico MadridBaseline
Shots10 shots/match13.2 shots/match11.6 shots/match
Shots against15 shots/match10.5 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Oviedo
0Draws
1Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid — Oviedo · La Liga2–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Oviedo favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Atletico Madrid in 10 · 4 too close

0.64 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 25/26▲1.65 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 25/26▲0.88 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10 shots/matchShotsseason · 25/26▲13.2 shots/match
15 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 25/26▲10.5 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 25/26▲5.38 shots/match
5.92 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 25/26▲3.12 shots/match
43.9%Possessionseason · 25/2655.2%
4.16 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/266.73 corners/match
5.68 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 25/26▲3.88 corners/match
2.52 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/26▲1.88 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2611.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
24%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/26▲42%
40%Scoring frequencyseason · 25/26▲85%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Oviedo27.5
Atletico Madrid82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Oviedo10.8
Atletico Madrid80.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Oviedo10
Atletico Madrid87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Oviedo32.5
Atletico Madrid47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Oviedo67.5
Atletico Madrid15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Oviedo32.5
Atletico Madrid92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Oviedo31.2
Atletico Madrid68.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/51 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots5/511.8 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.4 shots/match
38.2%Possession5/560.4%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.5 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.3 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5 shots/match
42.5%Possession10/1056.7%
4.6 corners/matchCorners10/106.1 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 26 matches
0.64 goals/matchGoals scored25/26▲1.65 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed25/26▲0.88 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/matchShots25/26▲13.2 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target25/26▲5.38 shots/match
43.9%Possession25/2655.2%
4.16 corners/matchCorners25/266.73 corners/match
2.52 cards/matchCards25/261.88 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls25/2611.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
0.38 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲1 goals/match
1.08 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots13/13▲10.7 shots/match
2.92 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲3.77 shots/match
45.8%Possession13/1353.7%
4.62 corners/matchCorners13/135.23 corners/match
2.15 cards/matchCards13/132 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls13/1312.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.29 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples25 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsOviedoAtletico Madrid
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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