PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 15:15 UTCFull timeCamp NouFull-time recap
4–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBarcelonaVillarreal
Shots19 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession74%26%
Corners3 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Barcelona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Barcelona have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Barcelona show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Barcelona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

20.6 shots/match▲ShotsBarcelona · Villarreal11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBarcelonaVillarrealBaseline
Shots20.6 shots/match11.9 shots/match11.6 shots/match
Shots against9.31 shots/match12.8 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Barcelona have recorded the higher season possession share.

69.2%▲PossessionBarcelona · Villarreal43.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 25.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBarcelonaVillarrealBaseline
Possession69.2%43.8%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Villarreal have a visible away split

moderate

Villarreal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.46 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.46 shots/match11.9 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Barcelona
0Draws
0Villarreal
Villarreal — Barcelona · La Liga0–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Barcelona favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Villarreal in 0 · 6 too close

2.73 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 26/261.85 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 26/261.19 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
20.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 26/2611.9 shots/match
9.31 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 26/2612.8 shots/match
7.46 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 26/264.38 shots/match
3.77 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 26/263.65 shots/match
69.2%Possessionseason · 26/2643.8%
7.54 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/264 corners/match
4.23 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 26/264.38 corners/match
1.69 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 26/262.5 cards/match
9.27 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2612.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
38%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/2631%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 26/2685%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Barcelona97.5
Villarreal20
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Barcelona97.5
Villarreal67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Barcelona89.2
Villarreal62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Barcelona87.5
Villarreal72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Barcelona2.5
Villarreal58.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Barcelona97.5
Villarreal25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Barcelona73.8
Villarreal48.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.8 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
24.4 shots/match▲Shots5/510.2 shots/match
7.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
71%Possession5/543%
8.6 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls5/514.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.7 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
22 shots/match▲Shots10/109.6 shots/match
7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.3 shots/match
72.8%Possession10/1041.6%
9.2 corners/matchCorners10/103.2 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match
8.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

26 / 26 matches
2.73 goals/match▲Goals scored26/261.85 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed26/261.19 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.6 shots/match▲Shots26/2611.9 shots/match
7.46 shots/match▲Shots on target26/264.38 shots/match
69.2%Possession26/2643.8%
7.54 corners/matchCorners26/264 corners/match
1.69 cards/matchCards26/262.5 cards/match
9.27 fouls/matchFouls26/2612.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
3.15 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.46 goals/match
0.46 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.54 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.5 shots/match▲Shots13/139.46 shots/match
7.69 shots/match▲Shots on target13/133.38 shots/match
69.7%Possession13/1338.8%
8 corners/matchCorners13/132.69 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards13/133.31 cards/match
9.23 fouls/matchFouls13/1313 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.8 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBarcelonaVillarreal
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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